Thank you Jim. You really are our resident "scientist" and your handle on the situation has been nothing short of stellar. Your predictions and ideas have been spot-on, even though I did not want to believe them in my (perhaps) over-optimistic character
The government, and perhaps some others (not Italy) overseas too, don't want to take drastic measures for fear of starting panic.
I am living in a parallel universe when I go to work. Not many people seem to care very much about the risks at the moment. There are bottles of anti-bacterial gel and signs in many languages telling people not to spit (but I think these were made previously as it takes time to translate and post out signs to their various premises). In the transport office paperwork is passed around all the time hand-to-hand and it looks like "business as usual". I wear thin gloves but I haven't seen anyone else do so. I arrive home and feel a sense of relief, as must be the case with millions of people in the UK at the moment. My kids were singing a song this morning about "going to China to get the coronavirus", which seems to be doing the rounds. I had to laugh when they sang it to me but said to myself "bloody hell"
I can only claim to be close to being a computer scientist Mike, but even there I am a self taught programmer albeit a senior one with a fancy title of Software Architect, but I do understand the scientific method and I have a gut feel for numbers and a broad understanding of many areas of science but just from an amateur perspective.
I see some members are still looking at everything relating to marriage, visas and moving to the UK. Plans are continuing for them.
I spoke to my Managing Director this morning to make a point that we needed a policy on Covid-19 including what we would do in the event of people returning from holidays that they have coming up soon. In our business a lot of us can work from home it would not be a major issue for us but it would still be disruptive. But the MD was reassuring as he had been thinking about a policy over the weekend.
Life must go on, I can't blame anyone for continuing with these sort of plans, my daughter's upcoming graduation is a case in point it is a social gathering which would likely be better postponed or cancelled but in fact the school have brought it forwards now, given that the schools are closed now it might still get cancelled.
Also a cause of stress for some, stress breaks down the immune system and viruses feed on a weak immune system. Vicious circle I guess
That research was in relation to chronic long term stress, I doubt that short term stress is going to have a large immediate effect on a persons immune system but I agree that stress does affect the performance of the immune system.
I'm a Celeb contestant and MP, Nadine Dorries, diagnosed with Covid. I was thinking on Sunday whilst attending Mass that one person could realistically wipe out 60% of the congregation. Not quite the same democratic in the House of Commons, but still not the most robust cross section of society.
Oh yeah they are all at risk now. These high profile people are one of the biggest risks, they are the network nodes that have the largest number of connections, see Six degrees of separation they are the social spreaders, indeed in my company our field and sales staff fulfil this role, in particular because the Sales people spend a lot of time overseas.
I feel angry. Last night I ended my shift at a mail distribution centre. As I was leaving, I opened the door to a room where people normally have bags searched when a security guard shouted over "Don't go in that room, it's the coronavirus room - somebody had symptoms in there today". I asked him why wasn't there a sign on the door telling people not to go inside. I phoned the agency as soon as I left the premises and left a message telling them that I will not be going back today. Obviously, a proper Health and Safety procedure was not implemented corrrectly.
Some extra info Malcolm which I was not aware of previously, the 99% IPA won't work to kill this virus, there has to be a water component in order to disrupt the lipid layer of the virus particles, it's needs to be about 70% by volume. The concentration is quite important as it only works between about 60 and 70 percent.
Coronavirus: UK government considering banning sporting fixtures: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/51859553
From that report. Really, so how come the quarantine and lock-down policy the Chinese enacted has so far worked, and extremely well at that. Sometimes the scientific advice they get is the scientific advice they want to hear. This is one time where I think we are hearing scientific opinion and not scientific consensus, not that it is easy to reach a consensus in a situation like this. edit: Sir Patrick Vallance is saying that if events are cancelled you get displacement activity i.e. people go to the pub and prior to that implying that because these are often open air events that you are only going to infect those immediately around you. But that forgets about all of your contact with others in your progress to get to the event in the first place, train, car, bus all the surfaces you will come into contact with all the congested places you have to travel through, so I would assert that they need think a bit more about the entire chain they are cancelling with these events and not just the destination of the event which gets cancelled.
