Latest Numbers How many not none? Presumably there can be varying degrees of symptoms? Is is possible for carriers of virus to consider they have cold, severe cold or mild flu and unwittingly spread the virus? The news suggests the UK government may recommend self-isolation of 7 days for minor ailments, just in case? Seems a good idea.
Yes that is happening, although it does not present exactly the same way a cold would. The numbers coming out of South Korea are encouraging for a country that likely has a very good testing regime and which has a demographic profile which has the bulk of its population between age 15 and 60. I feel that the 0.7% death rate in Korea might reflect real numbers if the testing has covered a broad sample of the population. If you compare to the Philippines population demographic that might provide some guide as to the apparent slow spread, maybe it is spreading but amongst a younger age range and not being noticed as much and possibly they are recovering quickly, one can but hope, I'm not sure the Phils will have had an opportunity to test as widely as the Koreans.
My son just told me that Duterte has closed the schools this week, both my kids are off school for all of this week.
I just watched Dr John Campbell's video for today the 9th. He notes that South Korea have done 140,000 tests which again with such a large sample size gives a more accurate view of the case/fatality rate so 0.7% might turn out to be realistic, but even if it is accurate it would still be ten times worth than most seasonal flu.
I can't find the totals on the GIS site you would have to manually add them all up. I will see if I can find anything. One thing you should note is that the recovery numbers lag far behind the toal number of cases which suggests that people take a long time to recover. These are the numbers from China so far. https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Found it: https://www.gisaid.org/epiflu-applications/global-cases-covid-19/ Always remember Malcolm, it's not about how many have got it now but how many will get it because of the number who have it now.
If it really is 3.5% that is a horrific number, evidence from well tested countries like Korea suggests it is lower and closer to 1% still a horrific number to be honest. These numbers out of Korea represent the point you made about there being many more unknown cases and the death rate being lower, in Korea with a 140,000 tests so far they have much greater sample coverage and will be seeing a far more realistic picture of the epidemic so I kind of trust their numbers, the numbers from elsewhere might indicate a large reservoir of hidden cases, at least I certainly hope so. Sample size is important, we do exit polls at elections which get accurate results from much less data, doing tests for SARS-CoV-2 is like an exit poll at an election the more tests you do over a random portion of the population the more accurate your picture will be of the true spread.
Malcolm, really don't take comfort in that kind of number it's meaningless, it is the number who are going to get it that matters not the current proportion of people who have got it. Even the government are saying they expect 60% to 70% of the entire population of the UK will eventually get this. The whole point of containment is to delay the spread and to reduce the peak.
Thats because people are crapping themselves at the thought of getting this virus , hand cleaner and soap almost impossible to get whats wrong with people, saw an old guy in Aldi yesterday get 12 cartons of Longlife milk, looking at him i thought the milk might just last longer than him..
I went into Aldi yesterday, talk about panic buying, there wasnt a patio set to be had in the entire store
Yeah it has, but that's the sheep mentality, fear of losing out, irrational, dumb, but perfectly natural.
Monday. Dr Harries said the vast majority of those diagnosed with coronavirus in Britain are "pretty well" but that they may "feel rough for a few days". She said cancelling big outdoor events like football matches would not necessarily be guided by science. "The virus will not survive very long outside," she said. "Many outdoor events, particularly, are safe."
They should be getting paper kitchen towels which are far more useful and versatile, you are better drying your hands on a paper towel and throwing it away than you are drying them on a bathroom towel which is going to get reused. Watch some more of Dr John Campbells stuff particularly in relation to Vitamin D and its protective effects against both respiratory virus and bacterial infections. There has been a proper study double blind set of trials done on a large sample that shows 19% reduction in respiratory infections in those who do not have a vitamin D deficiency (most of us in the northern hemisphere do in winter months) and up to 70% reduction in those who do have a Vitamin D deficiency, the source is the British Medical Journal. One a day, not multivitamins but actual dedicated Vitamin D 25 microgram tablets.
If you are close enough to someone to smell the food they are eating then you are breathing in air that they breathed out, i.e. micro droplets, I imagine that at football match for instance there is a lot of shouting and cheering so go figure on how easily a virus or other partially airborne infection could spread. The government are saying that the situation and advice on this issue could change, so if it could change would it not be better to assume the worst now before we have to go 'oops we've changed the advice'.
