Is it right that all countries should be following each other practices, as the media is questioning the government strategy at the moment. Seems what the government was actually saying is that the majority will suffer mild conditions and whilst it's still building up in the population, then allow those to build a self immunisation to the virus, whilst the few needing medical treatment can be cared for whilst the hospitals can cope. I suspect they wish more to become affected and self isolate for future immunisation purposes, but actually saying that would be bad public relations? Once some immunity is achieved in the population, then those individuals are removed from later statistics and not contribute tofurther outbreak IF hygene proceedures are still followed (washing hand and no general contact). This is only possible whilst infection rate is low. However, if / when the big rise in infections does come, then at least a part of the population has already become immune and hopefully those needing medical assistance can be accommodated by the medical institutes. Long term overall lockdown may reduce those affected, but has significant financial impact and may expose a large number of the population to further outbreaks? Whilst overall lockdown is seeming to reduce cases, it also has a financial impact and lock down has yet to be tested if the non-immune population is at risk of further break outs and the whole situation will not occur again later, especially if not a significant number of the population hasn't attained immunity?
Twelve percent need some form of hospital treatment, and we are a long way away from herd immunity with this thing. You need pretty large numbers to get to the point where herd immunity has any real affect, and the problem is that with 12% needing hospitalisation the hospitals will simply not be able to cope therefore the death rate will be much higher than the 1% it appears to be where hospital medical treatment is available, this is specifically ventilation and oxygen supplies for those with pneumonia like respiratory failure. The median age of death for this thing was calculated by a Chinese team who were in there at the start of the epidemic in China that age is 59, that's the middle number on the graph, the only good news is that there had been no deaths amongst those under 16. What they should concentrate on is flattening the curve, this is the delay theory, if spread continues rapidly then the peak could be in mid to late May, and the hospitals will not be able to cope, if the curve is flattened so that the peak is September then maybe there is a fighting chance but either way I would bet that people will be dying at home, which is what happened in China. We will not lock down with the same degree of control that the Chinese managed and are still managing, so I expect our final numbers to be much higher than the Chinese numbers so far.
I got a runny nose, sore throath, catharr but no fever, no pains. no headaches and generally feel as miserable as sin, but it is sunny outside at the moment, the temperature is raising and I am going out for a walk hoping to find some store that still stocks toilet paper.... I am not bothered about stockpiling pasta or rice, because as an Italo-pinoy household we already stock the stuff anyway...
Wonder if the immunity system is helped by having previously dealt with recent colds? The previous statistics when testing happened showed was that the majority of symptoms reported were not coronavirus. If the NHS becomes overwhelmed, then shouldn't the government force the use of private hospitals?
No it won't be, antibodies are produced by your body's lymphocytes specifically for each antigen (virus) it's like a lock and key arrangement, you also have special memory lymphocytes that once your body has figured out how to combat a particular virus the memory lymphocytes retain the manufacturing instructions for making more antibodies later, when the body is presented with more of the same type of antigen. That's what immunity is, the memory cells and their antibody factories, the problem with SARS like illnesses and illnesses like the flu is that our bodies are a bit forgetful and you can lose immunity to some illnesses after as little as 5 to 10 years.
What you don't want Dom is to have a normal cold at the same time as this SARS-Cov-II, they have been saying that this thing makes you cough but you don't have a sore throat as such and it is a non productive cough at least at the start.
We are preparing for it, most of us could work at home but we are not at the point of saying yeah stay at home now, at least not yet, there are one or two with other health issues that we need to think carefully about protecting.
Before he left tonight one of our lads told us that his wife's work colleague had been notified of contact with a confirmed case, a return from Italy case with cough and fever, I asked him if he had existing exposure to this and he said no but I will when I go home tonight, so I am hoping we don't see him on Monday he has informed management and could be the first of our people exposed to this. What concerns me more is that we have field staff who are already booked to be at the office this coming week, we really don't need that and it is a real risk, but then again the degree of separation that any of us have no matter how hermit like our existence is really quite small, as I mentioned before the 7 day (cold)/(man flu) I caught in late January was hard to attribute, likely to have been either from someone in the office who was asymptomatic or from walking past people coughing in a supermarket, I remember specifically thinking 'bugger' as I walked past a person who was coughing in Morrisons.
As you guys know, I work as a supermarket home delivery driver, and the for the last week it has been like Christmas - so many orders. On top of that, I'm seeing panic buying with each delivery typically averaging £100 spends (960kg per trip, 3 times a day). Toilet Rolls were not available at all yesterday to our home delivery customers - the 3 pallets of loo roll that did come in on Thursday evening were gone within 30 minutes. Anti-bac sprays, gels and wipes, again none available. Pasta, long -life milk and even kitchen paper are also gone, big gaps everywhere. Our distribution depot in Magor is clean out of aforementioned items so supplies are being sourced from Lichfield and Daventry, and delivery schedules are a mess - depot deliveries often 5 or 6 hours late or even cancelled. As for customers in self-isolation, we now bring their shopping in carrier bags, basically dump it at the door and get the hell out. We are also relying on customers to be honest and to let us know in advance if they are infected, but I'm sure some wont be so forthcoming, and there's that fear I could be infected quite easily if I have to bring shopping into the homes.
I'm surprised supermarkets haven't told customers that the delivery drivers must stay away from going into homes for everyone's safety, Rob
Drove to a customer in Newton Aycliffe, County Durham, yesterday. They would not allow me to go inside their premises for a pee. I asked them what would happen if I wanted a No. 2 and they just shrugged their shoulders, saying "sorry, company policy". *edit* The more I think about this, I agree with the company policy. Draconian but necessary. I am still not sure what I would have done if it was a #2 though .
Indeed, it's a worrying time for me and Elsa as well, she works in A & E. The irony is that we can't go abroad for a break to Spain, or anywhere else for that matter. Best to stay at home.
Yes, best to stay in the UK. I don't know but I bet Caravan and Tent sales are going through the roof if people are still thinking about their holidays this summer.
TBH, I have lost confidence in our government. It seemed very obvious to me that mass gatherings could cause a big problem resulting in deaths. They did not stop the premier league from playing matches - the premier league did that themselves. Where was the leadership in this country when they saw the benefit that a lockdown did in Hubei province? We seem to be behind the curve all the time, worrying about money instead of lives. It is a very disturbing situation.
Hundreds of scientists say UK virus strategy is 'risking lives': https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51892402 "Measures 'insufficient' In the open letter the group of scientists argue that stronger "social distancing measures" would "dramatically" slow the rate of growth of the disease in the UK, and would spare "thousands of lives". The group said the current measures are "insufficient" and "additional and more restrictive measures should be taken immediately", as is happening in other countries. "
Having now read that link I agree even more. As I said before we need scientific consensus on this, and it looks like we don't have that in the UK at the moment.
I have been getting more and more worried with the lack of proactive measures in our country since the news came out of China. This lack of leadership has caused millions of people to not take this virus seriously. I have seen this at lots of work places, most peoples' light bulbs just haven't switched on.
Yes, some folk in my workplace are still worried about their holidays, and there is still quite a strong 'it's not as bad as flu' notion, they look at today's numbers and past flu numbers and just totally miss the point. Terrifying.
