Coronavirus in the UK

Watch anyone use washing up detergent, yes personal observation of many people over a lifetime.

In the old days there used to be cheap generic detergents and people just used large dollops every time because it wasn't very concentrated, stick a bottle of Fairy Liquid in front of them and they never knew it was any different so a fortnight later they would have used a bottle that could have lasted 2 months.

You can get away with the tiniest drops of that detergent because its advertising was for once true, my father (a chemist) explained this to me as a child when I was under ten years old, I listened and because I listened I also observed other people.

I'm not 100% sure but I think the product 'Joy' in the Philippines is the same as Fairy Liquid and it gets wasted over there too even though in our family they water it down and put in another container they only do that so that can use big dollops of it because somehow maybe that feels more satisfying.

Proctor and Gamble are not about to tell everyone how little they really need to use so extrapolating from personal observation I would bet that few people get as much value from a bottle as they could.

Well as you know I have a medical problem down there and have for a long time and I like to be absolutely sure I am going to have a clean bum at all times

edit: what I do is more akin to using 'consignment stock' to run a business instead of 'just in time supply' except that I obviously have to pay for the stock up front.

So they say

There is a great deal of controversy regards Sweden.

And there is a huge assumption that herd immunity is even possible.

Plenty of people in Sweden are doing all the right things to minimise transmission they didn't just carry on as normal a large portion of the population took great care same as elsewhere in the world.

Their economy didn't do that much better than elsewhere either.

It is far too early to be claiming victory in Sweden what you have in the graph below could explode again same as it is trying to here.




And then we come back to the fact that the USA has really not done much more than Sweden and it is still a disaster over there.

Have a read of this if it is public.

https://www.newscientist.com/articl...trategy-a-cautionary-tale-or-a-success-story/

That 20% infection figure was quoted as being close to where they thought London had reached many months ago and yet hospitalisations are on the up in London and elsewhere in the UK.

This one is easy we just have to wait a short few weeks to see what happens next.

For me the most important figure is hospitalisations and what I mean is we will see where that goes all over Europe in the next few weeks.

On a per capita basis Sweden did only a fraction better than Italy in terms of deaths, France had a better result and the USA has now overtaken us by a fraction, Spain at present is ranked 5th on this view of the data.

I totally agree, not planning ahead is incredibly dumb, it was a joke the last time and an even bigger joke this time round when people should have been expecting to be going out less.

We are now.

We are at the toe of the curve, deaths follow hospitalisations anything from a week to a month or more, so what we are seeing now is the result of the relaxation in late July and early August and the growth during that time.

It's doubling every seven days they think so given that new measures only just started we should probably be seeing 70 to a 100 deaths a day on midweek days next week, yesterday was 37, France is a week or so ahead of us Spain a couple of weeks, Italy didn't let it get out of order and is not on this track at present but schools are going back in Italy and people are going back to offices so they need to watch.

Remember when the changed the definition of dying of Covid the other month and cut 5000 fatalities from the count if you died more than a month after a diagnosis, well I was reading about a young 28 year old doctor in the US who was diagnosed in July mid to late July, spent all of August in Intensive care, on ventilation and on ECMO machines, an ECMO allows your lungs to stop breathing for you as it takes over completely and oxygenates your blood outside your body.

Well she looked like she was getting better about 10 days ago they took her off the ECMO and then she had a massive bleed on the brain, that happened because one of the direct effects of this virus is to increase the permeability of blood vessels, so did she die of a brain haemorrhage aged 28 or did Covid kill her 7 or 8 weeks after she got infected, I rather think Covid killed her, she was a young healthy woman a medical professional herself.






Just the tiniest hint in our data at the moment but I think it is real and is there.

As per the New Scientist article and other reports from other sources, Sweden had a voluntary lockdown they did a lot on their own from very early on.

Yeah I know but I think we still need to wait and see, I think there is plenty of opportunity for this virus in many countries and only time will tell.