It won't kill the economy, the country will just have to relearn how to hibernate capitalism, they've done something similar during wartime, they can do it again.
Well not completely. I suppose “kill” is a bit of an exaggeration. Knock it for six though. Massive recession. The trade off still stands though. It is already happening. Looking at today’s figures, I hope those for deaths are influenced by a hangover in stats from Sunday.
Naw, I am talking about the UK Malcolm, surely you've not been missing this in these threads all this time?
One more time, our government expects that 60 percent or more of the UK will eventually contract this illness, ok. That for brevity is about 40 million people, ok. Germany and South Korea indicate a current known Infection Fatality Rate of nearly 2% now and they have done the largest number of tests per head of population of any large countries more or less. Lets assume the real IFR is half that 1%, ok That means 400,000 UK citizens DIE. Let's be more generous and assume the real IFR is one quarter of the numbers coming out of Germany and South Korea 0.5% that's still 200,000 UK Citizens DEAD Long before you get anywhere near those numbers they are dying at home in droves.
I'm assuming you mean that the albeit late action in those countries is finally reducing the numbers dying?
well doesnt that just prove the governments actions have been an outstanding success then--doesnt it.
Yes and no, it proves that they barely acted in time just the same as Italy and Spain and many others, it awaits to be seen just how late the USA has been in acting. And you can state that the other way it just proves what a fantastic job China did in taking draconian measures in quarantining an entire province really early on. No one comes out of this in a good light, not the Chinese nor Europe nor us.
UK lockdown started on 22nd roughly shown in the blue cell. Had they started the lockdown yesterday you could have expected the red cell in a fortnight. And this model makes very simple assumptions but was about right on the 6th for the values actually reported on the 5th. And we still have weeks worth of deaths that will pass through the system even with the lockdown.
And before we all start celebrating France just added 11,000 new cases in a day and 1400 new deaths in one day, up from 5000 new cases and 830 new deaths yesterday.
Yes. Exactly. Though I hope that as restrictions on social distancing are lifted the virus does not come back and bite them in the bum again. How are you by the way Oss? Presumably you have left that fever etc behind?
And also a draconian job in keeping it quiet for as long as they could, impairing the ability of other nations to take appropriate measures or at least better prepare, especially by stopping flights in, or checks on passemgers and all associated. While we are at the China page, I wonder if I can mention, without appearing biased about the two-faced attitude that their ruling elite sports for all and sundry to see.. At the beginning, Italy sent equipment to help combat the infection for free, without any thought... The same stuff arrived back from China minus a considerable few bits and bobs, but apparently they want paying for it Disappointed and bitter... Nothing will chamge my mind on thinking that the virus was planned and accidentally on purpose released
They took about four weeks from when they could reasonably have known, being a totalitarian state does not mean they don't have a treacle like bureaucracy, In early December they would have had reason to think that another SARS like episode was occurring had they listened to that young doctor, instead some self serving clods worried about upsetting their bosses suppressed it, our political system has people covering their own arse and and acting in selfish self interest so does theirs. Do you think we would have done better if this had emerged on a UK Chicken Farm which it very easily could have done.
Singapore also got off to a quick start because they like Taiwan had seen SARS before and they knew what to expect, it is very obvious that those who were prepared have so far suffered the least.
That’s the one my wife keeps recounting to me. It’s all the more credible when we consider that they are active in the Philippine Sea again, stealing islands. The thing about this virus is that it can be looked at as nothing much for those who are metabolically sound. It appears in so so many cases to be deadly to those with other underlying conditions. It seems no coincidence that we in the west have been and are being hit the hardest. There appears to be a few exceptions but the huge majority of fatalities are amongst those who are under par metabolically and have already compromised immune systems.
As I said elsewhere I cannot assume that I had it, I had something and some of the symptoms were close to those reported for this virus but I was better within five days, no fever after the 5th day and for it to be this virus I would have to assume a very long incubation period or exceptional bad luck in the one hour I was out getting supplies that Sunday. So for me I am still scared, maybe my body was fixing the slight toothache I had although in all honesty I've never recovered from a bacterial tooth problem without antibiotics in my entire life and I've had lots of tooth problems
This is about the fourth time I have posted this link. https://www.bioworld.com/articles/4...-family-tree-to-battle-outbreak-and-infodemic
