As I said I am using it to track, France and Spain are reducing and it's about 3 months before we leave for France then Spain. We will have greater social distancing where we are going then a holiday in the UK.
Why population adjust it 2 deaths is 2 deaths and better than 7 deaths! As is the new cases it is decreasing I look at how they as country are doing to look at risk. If you look at France they have big issues in the Paris area and North East France and a small pocket in SW France so avoid them! It's like at present saying shall I have a day out in Blackburn or a day out at Bala
Because you can draw any arbitrary line round any area and say look its fine here, I mean Crosby West, Waterloo and Crosby East are all up in the last seven days in terms of cases but Seaforth and Bootle are not even showing as they had less than 3 cases.
The trouble is even if the U.K. might remain relatively Covid free over the coming months, we just cannot predict what is likely to happen in the Philippines, Portugal, Spain or Timbuctoo, particularly as many countries are struggling to vaccinate. The risk of booking now and travelling in July, say, is that things can change very rapidly. Anybody planning to travel overseas in the summer is rolling the dice, I believe. They may throw a 6 but on the other hand they may throw a 1. The choice of throwing the dice is ours to take.
Indeed. I can't even get a flight with my preferred airline even though I would likely be at the peak of my vaccine immunity to Covid on these dates below but I could have taken the risk as I would have gotten a refund if I couldn't travel albeit in the form of a one year voucher with delayed cash refund. It's the potential restrictions on arrival in MNL like the quarantine hotel that also make it impossible for me, these dates cover my daughter's 13th birthday and it is simply not going to happen.
Yes, being quarantined in Manila twice. Once on arrival and once on return. Unless we have oodles of time at our disposal and deep pockets. And don’t have a job to go back to. Mrs Ash knows someone who has had to go through this recently. An extended stay...
Don't visit Crosby West, Crosby East or Waterloo and the area you identify is far smaller and completely different than a nation as diverse as Spain and France.
Again some encouraging figure for France and Europe as a whole https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/countries-and-territories/france/ Macron understands he needs to improve on the below https://www.statista.com/statistics/1196071/covid-19-vaccination-rate-in-europe-by-country/
According to this link at the current rate of vaccinations it will take the Philippines 5.2 years to vaccinate everybody! https://www.omnicalculator.com/health/vaccine-queue-philippines
Almost all of that map was white last week. The point was arbitrary lines, in that map you can draw one round Litherland and extend it up to Skelmersdale and down over to the Wirral and say look it's safe here, but Covid will still be spreading in those areas. Remember one of the early UK cases had returned from China via a holiday in France up in the Alps somewhere. I agree that the continent is doing better now in terms of vaccination, a lot better and that will swing the needle in your direction in safety terms.
It's worse than that the antivax sentiment is so strong that they probably won't ever get enough uptake of the vaccine, the power of Facebook memes and local chismis over there is so strong that huge numbers will never be rational about it, and I'm speaking here with two members of my household as examples Dhang and Granny are refusing to even be on the list for vaccination.
Yes my wifes household is the same we have convinced her Dad to get his done when the offer comes along? So you are going to have a choice to make at some point, risk versus seeing your kids.
That's a no brainer, I have had two vaccinations two weeks from now I would travel if I were allowed but I'm not rich enough to do double quarantines and afford high flight prices and the risk of no refund on travelling against government advice and with invalid health travel insurance. Will travel insurance still cover travelling to a country on the red list when the thing you fall ill from abroad is not Covid or will they say your insurance is void because you chose to travel against government advice. My comments about the dangers of visiting the continent are not about the double vaccinated going on holiday but about all the unvaccinated Brits of varying ages that will be amongst them exporting the Indian and Kent variants to the continent and amongst that group will be other unvaccinated young Brits who get infected while on holiday bringing it back and spreading it, plus holidays of any kind will increase the spread of variants many of which might be benign but the route to a dangerous version can be via several other benign mutations.
The truth is we just don’t know. It’s all guesswork. The false dawns are getting repetitive now. Each of us has to weigh up the risks and personal consequences.
Yeah we don't know. On the false dawns I'm not that bothered I never believed any of them were dawns and I had predicted to my work colleagues and to the lads in my team in particular what would happen long before events came to pass, as an example the company was trying to get back to the office last August early September but I knew that wasn't going to happen because of the dynamics of the last summer season. This time I am more inclined to think that we probably will be back in the office on the summer solstice but I think there is a chance of a delay of a month or so, tomorrows relaxation will be feeding back through the system in three weeks in terms of numbers and if this Indian variant is really 50% more infectious than the Kent variant well it will be a close call I think. On a topic which I have been long interested in getting some data, I finally found some stuff that was published about a month ago, it's the question how many people with single vaccination have ended up in hospital since the UK vaccination programme started, the answer is 1 in 25 about 1800 or so people out of 42,000 hospitalised since December 8th, now that sounds bad but almost all of them got sick within 5 to 7 days after vaccination i.e. before immunity had time to build. The total count of full vaccination failures at the time of publication was about 30 and that was predominantly in the over 80s, so the conclusion is that the vaccines really are effective in the vast majority of people. S1143_Hospitalised_vaccinated_patients_during_the_second_wave__2_.pdf (publishing.service.gov.uk) This information should be quite reassuring for the majority of us in that it looks to be very unlikely that we will end up in hospital after full vaccination. I know I am an exception but today I once again had full FFP3 mask and wore fully sealed goggles again for my second vaccination, for some of those unlucky enough to to part of that 1 in 25 it is quite possible that infection coincided with vaccination and for me I will be keeping up all my personal protective measures for a good few months yet, my biggest risk is being forced back to the office.
