The man who says he's worked out how to PREDICT earthquakes...

The West Valley fault is "ripe". Just dont cough or sneeze in its vicinity.

How do you know its "ripe"?

Ahhh So now I understand!!...Its a legal thing!
Very scary!

I didn't study science but admire those that do.
From what I understand about Einstien,he changed the way many scientists think and calculate stuff today.
I have no doubt that many of the important discoveries in the future will be based on his tireless and out of the box thinking in the past. His theories on Space,Gravity,energy and matter seem pretty damned profound to me.. What a genius!
But then what do I know!!

Only use HP or Lea and Perrins myself but tastes vary

Imagine if they took that approach with the weathermen.

You missed that, some posts back. It is complicated, yes. But would still take some time to go through it. The lines of evidence are lengthy and manyfold. It would take hours to go through it. Sometimes the simple line of explanation is not enough. And sometimes the in depth line of explanation is not enough, especially if the person one seeks to explain it to is unreceptive in the first place. It helps if the listener has an open mind instead of one that is made up in the first place.

Tough. Thats life.

Yeah Michael (dried) Fish

I noticed that too. A misunderstanding of what scientists, whoever they are, are capable of.

I do like to think that one day it might be possible to pick up on an impending quake. It was geophysical science that confirmed the outline of the continental plates.

Measuring the magnitude of a weight on the end of a wire rope is easily done by the change in tension in the line. The key to predicting earthquakes more accurately, might be to establish a way of measuring the compression already built up in the ground before the quake happens. Not sure if that is possible / practicable. We can use GPS to measure the growth of Everest (for example) year on year. Something that wasnt possible some years back. Who knows what we will be able to do in the future.

If we can measure the rate of movement of the plates in the region, it should be possible to calculate the locked in potential, year on year. The biggest unknown is the friction factor across the faultline. That assumes that in the short term, all else is equal.

Yes. He would have been hung for that!

Yea a complete plonka. Didn't do his career any harm though!

Lots of variables in that sentence. Determining the tension would be a tough one. When it releases, even tougher.

I remember it well. But he was from the " dont worry about it folks, sleep easy " branch of the prediction community. It seems you cant win. If you say, be careful there is a storm brewing and it turns out to be a light wind, you are damned alongside those like Michael Fish. Best policy is to slightly over predict.

Compression / tension. Depends on the fault. I should have said compression.

Once released at the quake, the compressional forces will have dissipated of course. Till the next time when the cycle would repeat itself over again. Which is what seems to have happened in the case of the West Valley fault. It is cyclical. Subduction, build up of compressive forces, quake, relaxing of compressive forces. Build up of compressive forces, quake, relaxing of compressive forces. Etc etc.

This makes some sense:

http://www.livescience.com/42200-gps-earthquake-forecasting-costa-rica.html

And here is how the prediction of earthquakes can be fine tuned. It may not give the precise second but it will be a step closer to more accuracy.



http://www.iris.edu/hq/files/programs/education_and_outreach/aotm/14/1.GPS_Background.pdf

"In the years since the Loma Prieta quake, geophysicists have developed methods to describe deformation of the crust related to faults using three types of motion: interseismic, coseismic and post-seismic. Interseismic motion is the slow movement along faults that takes place over the long intervals between earthquakes. This motion is evidence of strain accumulating or deformation occurring in Earth’s crust and provides clues to where earthquakes might next occur. Coseismic motion is rapid displacement that occurs at the time of an earthquake. Post-seismic motion takes place in the days to months after a quake as the crust adjusts and returns to a relatively stable state. By using GPS equipment and software and two different methods, scientists can measure all three types of motion to a precision of a few millimeters."

http://www.earthmagazine.org/article/precise-fault-how-gps-revolutionized-seismic-research


Needs to be read and understood. Vast difference between this and the opening post.

Firstly, WSM (World Stress Map ) in conjunction with Big Data needs to be utilised by the Philippine authorities. If it isnt already.

Secondly, it is possible to measure tectonic stresses across a region as well as vertical stresses with depth. This technique has been used in the oil industry for a number of years with a lot of success and for several applications. I might have suggested seismic data but we wouldnt want to trigger the quake. . A series of slim boreholes along the axial length of the fault line, parallel to the faultline, and further out would enable acoustic type logging devices to log the acoustic properties of the rocks around the borehole. A change in stress would show up as lateral variation in those properties. That way a clearer assesment could be made on how fully loaded a fault system might be and over time.

http://dc-app3-14.gfz-potsdam.de/pub/introduction/introduction_frame.html

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_data