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The man who says he's worked out how to PREDICT earthquakes...

Discussion in 'General Chit Chat' started by Bootsonground, Jul 26, 2015.

  1. Bootsonground
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    Bootsonground Guest

    The man who says he's worked out how to PREDICT earthquakes and says the next one to hit U.S. will be on July 12
    • David Nabhan claims there is a pattern as to when earthquakes occur and that they can be predicted
    • Quakes happen during either a full or new moon - and within three hours of dawn or dusk
    • Earthquake prediction has been almost a taboo field of study for the United States Geological Survey and say such findings are nonsense

    For decades, scientists have tried to perfect methods and analyze data in a bid to predict earthquakes before they happen and potentially save hundreds of thousands of lives.

    However, an author living in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania claims the answers are in plain sight and David Nabhan has now written a book about his remarkable findings.

    Mr Nabhan, a former science teacher from California, became interested in earthquakes.

    He was in charge of the emergency preparedness plan at the school where he worked.

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    Cracking the code: Author David Nabhan believes he has found the key to accurately predicting when an earthquake will strike and has suggested there is a pattern between them


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    Real science? Earthquake prediction has been almost a taboo field of study for the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the very governmental agency in charge of making progress in this area, leaving their conservative approach to draw criticism from prominent seismologists worldwide


    THE PERILS OF EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION
    Scientists and folklorists have used a dizzying selection of methods and theories trying to make earthquake forecasts for years, with little success.

    Animal behavior, changes in the weather, and seismograms have all fallen short.

    Scientists first turned to seismology as a predictive tool, hoping to find patterns of foreshocks that might indicate that a fault is about to slip.

    But nobody has been able to reliably distinguish between the waves of energy that herald a great earthquake and harmless rumblings.

    He says he noticed every earthquake happened at dusk or dawn.

    'I realized this sort of conscience doesn’t happen in science. These dawn and dusk quakes during new and full moons are the paradigm on the west coast,' he said.

    'All six great quakes that have struck in Los Angeles that have killed people since the 30s, all of them, dawn or dusk quakes', he told CBS Pittsburgh.

    Mr Nabhan says that it is the 'conjoined lunar and solar gravitational tides,' that causes the quakes.



    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...uakes-says-one-U-S-July-12.html#ixzz3gwzzTQW1
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  2. Bootsonground
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    Bootsonground Guest

    July 12th??
    Bugger.. I missed it!
  3. Bootsonground
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    Bootsonground Guest

    YELLOWSTONE SUPERVOLCANO ON VERGE OF ERUPTION; USGS SUPPRESSING INFORMATION
    By Shepard Ambellas

    WYOMING (INTELLIHUB) — As of January 29, 2015, Hank Hessler, a park geologist stationed at Yellowstone National Park since 2002, publicly announced and put only a 2 week time-frame for the supervolcano located under the park to erupt.

    Although no one knows for sure if Hessler’s prediction will come true, it does set an eerie overtone for people located within a 1000 mile swath of the park.

    Interestingly enough this information dovetails with information previously reported by Intellihub, making Hessler’s claims all that much more real. Not to mention the fact that there was more than 1,900 documented earthquakes throughout the park in 2014 alone as swarm activity continues to increase.

    On March 4, 2014, Intellihub came across information, by an unnamed source, whoreported that the White House had ordered the United States Geological Survey (USGS) to suppress earthquake swarm data within the region to hide what may be coming from the general public. And this is where it gets scary as Yellowstone and a 1000 mile swath surrounding the park’s supervolcano may be on the brink of an extinction level event (ELE).

    https://www.intellihub.com/1000-mil...s-extinction-level-event-says-park-geologist/
  4. oss
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    oss Somewhere Staff Member

    And what authority would this guy have in this field?

    Is he a researcher?

    Is he a geophysicist or a geologist?

    No he's a writer.....
  5. oss
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    oss Somewhere Staff Member

    Boots, you read some very low quality sources mate.
    • Like Like x 1
  6. Bootsonground
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    Bootsonground Guest


    Haha..At least the guy was brave enough to predict a day and a month!!
    Unlike the...."experts"!!
  7. oss
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    oss Somewhere Staff Member

    So should experts be able to tell me precisely what the weather will be like next month in Liverpool on the 26th of August?

    Any person who actually understood basic science and how things work would laugh at that question, it will never ever ever be possible to predict the exact local weather a month in advance, no matter how technologically advanced we get, it simply will not happen, even if the human race lasted a million years into the future it still would not be something we could do.

    However you seem to imagine that such feats of prediction should be possible if the person making the prediction is expert enough?

    Note well that this only applies to finely balanced systems, I can predict with a degree of probability approaching one hundred percent that it will be very dark and very cold in Antarctica next June but I can't tell you if it will be snowing or not.
  8. Bootsonground
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    Bootsonground Guest

    "So should experts be able to tell me precisely what the weather will be like next month in Liverpool on the 26th of August?"

    Wouldn't that be great if they could?? Sadly though,you are probably correct.. They will probably never be able to predict with any certainty any natural event that occurs because of mother nature.
    Unfortunately they can only guess with the aid of some kind of probability calculation based on what they think they know.
    They admittedly are getting far better at predicting typhoon direction, because of the use of live satellite images but even then there are 5 or more different track predictions from 5 or more weather agencies.
    Typhoon Yolanda was predicted to hit Bohol with a high % of accuracy.. It cost me lots in money and labour to completely re net our nipa roof and batten everything down in time..
    On the big day I would have been lucky if I could fly a kite!
    Oh well..At least I know the roof tiles are secure.
    In regards earthquakes,the scientits (spelling error) didn't even know which of their "fault lines" were to blame for the Bohol shake..
    It took them days to discover that Mother earth had created a brand new one..Just for them!
  9. knightstrike
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    knightstrike Well-Known Member

    Probably when we can control the weather. We already have cloud seeding.

    Given another hundred years, we could create snow because it's just precipitation and low temperature. We'll also be able to clear clouds up with a laser or something.

    So who needs prediction, when you can just conjure your own weather? lol.
  10. Aromulus
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    Aromulus The Don Staff Member

    Should I move this thread to the "Humour" section...???
  11. Dave_E
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    Dave_E Well-Known Member Trusted Member

    The analysis of probability has led to much of our current scientific knowledge.
    • Agree Agree x 1
  12. Anon220806
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    Anon220806 Well-Known Member

    Which days will provide the strongest typhoons this year, in the Philippines?

    Nobody knows. Not even the experts.
  13. Anon220806
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    Anon220806 Well-Known Member

    Which day will each of us die on? Nobody knows. The experts cant tell us.
  14. Bootsonground
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    Bootsonground Guest

    I think there is a very good place for this topic in the humour section... Up to you Boss!!
    Add the Climate change topics too.. They are always good for a laugh!!
  15. Anon220806
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    Anon220806 Well-Known Member

    Who needs scientists?
    • Funny Funny x 1
  16. Bootsonground
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    Bootsonground Guest

    We could do with a few more Einsteins in this day and age that's for sure.

    "If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough".Einstein.
  17. Dave_E
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    Dave_E Well-Known Member Trusted Member

    [​IMG]
    • Funny Funny x 4
    • Like Like x 3
  18. Bootsonground
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    Bootsonground Guest

    Nice one Dave.
  19. Anon220806
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    Anon220806 Well-Known Member

    In the case of the West Valley fault it is glaringly obvious that it will go. The reason is glaringly obvious why, just like each of us will pass away eventually. Perhaps the misunderstanding surrounds why it is that it will happen? I sense that is the case.

    It is mother nature but of a geological nature and not a biological nature. It is very much a case of when, not if.

    When will an apple fall off a tree. We know it will, we just dont know the precise second, minute or hour of the day. We know it will be a day in the autumn here, maybe on a windy day, when the apple is ripe.

    The West Valley fault is "ripe". Just dont cough or sneeze in its vicinity.
    Last edited: Jul 26, 2015
  20. Aromulus
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    Aromulus The Don Staff Member

    A few years ago, some Italian volcanologists were asked if a certain city would be affected by an earthquake after some tremors, they did say on record that it would not happen again, or something of the sort, but a few months later L'Aquila was flattened and people died...
    Arrested, tried and jailed....
    But I believe that they have been pardoned now.

    http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/italian-scientists-get/

    http://www.theguardian.com/science/2012/oct/22/scientists-convicted-manslaughter-earthquake

    Now the good news

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...of-failing-to-predict-LAquila-earthquake.html

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