Coronavirus in the UK

Because the UK would have continued its ban on foreign travel and we would know how many people in the country had been vaccinated already.

We are getting this information daily and as to variants, 50% of all Covid tests in the UK are now being sequenced and teh variant identified, the country is doing surge testing specifically to check on the levels of variants of concern so that we know how wide the spread is for the variants Variants: distribution of cases data - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

If the South Africa variant was spreading widely by that time then the UK beach on the left would not be happening because we would likely be back in lockdown anyway if it turns out that the Oxford AZ is not particularly effective in preventing hospitalisations for that variant.

What is this discussion about, lets go back to the beginning, it is looking like travel restrictions outside the UK will be in place a lot longer, that is the mood music right now that is what we are talking about.

Last year they the government f**ked everything up, this year it looks like they won't.

Last year that beach was monumentally stupid, almost no one had any immunity against Covid, this year 60% of the people on that beach might be vaccinated already, those are two totally different scenarios, this could be allowed in the UK if the overall transmission rate has reached very low levels.

It now looks like vaccinated people cannot pass the virus on, which is what was hoped for, so the risk of transmission in large crowds is dramatically reduced once people are vaccinated, so it could be allowed this year if the vaccine programme continues as well as it has so far.

Now lets say by the end of May we discover that the SA variant or the Brazilian variant is now gathering pace, we would know that from surge testing and from once more increasing hospitalisations, with a closed border policy we can do that kind of monitoring and if the SA variant was starting to expand dramatically then this year the government should not F**k up by allowing this kind of UK beach scene.

With a closed border policy we have more control of our local situation, if we open the borders then it is a free for all because you are potentially bringing back other as yet unknown mutations from overseas.

The new measures in place for quarantine on arrival will help prevent new variants from escaping into the UK, and those measures are long overdue the Phils was doing this nearly a year ago.

The UK vaccination programme is a race to reduce the number of hosts as that reduction will reduce the number of home grown variants of concern.

Yes I am, and I am doing so because for once they seem to be listening to the Science.

Yes this is my prediction which I may or may not refer you back to in July or August but being fair if it turns out I am wrong I will probably refer back to this post and this thread and admit that.

And to add, lets suppose things get worse in the Phils and let's say the Philippines gets added to the red list, given the almost non existent vaccine programme there even if I am allowed to fly I could and up in a £1750 quarantine hotel in the UK on my way back, how many people can afford an extra 1750 on their annual holiday and an extra ten days off work, I could stretch to it but I sure as hell can't afford it. This obviously applies to any country that gets added to the red list.

Lifting the holiday restrictions will not revive foreign travel on it's own if the quarantine restrictions on return are not also lifted, but if you life the quarantine restrictions you let variants return to the country with the holidaymakers.

The government is faced with having another winter like this in the coming year or being tough now, I think that for once they are ready to be tough now and not to cave in to popular demand because they have seen how bad it got when they tried that before.

Worth watching all of it not just the vitamin D section!