Will You Vote UKIP in the 2015 General Election?

I agree that Ukip's success is all down to one man's dogged determination but I would not write Ukip off as being a one man band just yet. That's one of the mistakes the other three main political parties made. To their cost.

Fairly obviously the party's raison d'etre would cease to exist!

I think it's fairly clear that the local election results are reflective of the deep and growing dissatisfaction that many in the country feel towards people who should their political representatives but are in fact their political masters. On all sides, the House of Commons is led - and, to an extent, filled - by an elite group of men and women who lead a charmed life having been privately-educated and products of Oxbridge. They, and their predecessors, are all hopelessly out of touch with the electorate and have been increasingly so for the last forty-odd years. In short, the metropolitan elite treats the electorate with contempt.

The fact that only about 30% of the electorate bothered to vote in the local elections demonstrates the absolute disconnect between politicians and the voting public.

Labour's Big Mistake is that it assumed Ukip would only take Tory votes - which it did do - but Labour failed to recognise that Ukip would also create shockwaves in its own heartland in the north. Witness Rotherham where Ukip's candidates averaged 47% of the popular vote. Miliband's frankly farcical performances on TV and radio, coupled with the party's recent advertising campaign, didn't help Labour's chances and simply demonstrated how completely out of touch he and his aides are. I wouldn't be surprised if he suffers a "night of the long knives" orchestrated by his furious shadow chancellor. However some on his team do acknowledge that "immigration" is the hot topic and that the next Labour government needs to get a grip with it. Not that they can do much other than impose even more stringent controls on non-EU originating migrants, since they, like the Tories and Lib-Dems, are firmly wedded to the EU "dream".

I am disappointed by the Lib-Dem's performance. They have proven themselves to be a competent party of local politics but their disastrous showing has to be reflective of their supporters' disillusionment with the Westminster Party - a somewhat different animal. It's believed that Clegg's U-turn on university tuition fees may be partly responsible for undergraduates turning to other parties. But Clegg himself appears to be in denial and has said that he has no intention of resigning as leader of his party. A cynic would likely point out that since his Parliamentary salary is broadly the same as Miliband's (£219,000 iirc) and his pension increases year on year, he'd be foolish to throw-in the towel. But he, like Miliband, may find his fate decided by others.

But the worst offender must surely be that clown "Call Me Dave" Cameron whose lack of total empathy with ordinary votes - and his refusal to listen to his own backbenchers - is all too apparent. In the wake of his party's local election results and depending on the scale of Ukip gains in the Euro-elections, he may be forced to enter an electoral pact with Ukip. It would be his only means of retaining the keys to Number 10 in a year's time.

I read on the BBC's site last night that Ukip's share of the vote (for the local elections) translate to 20% if projected nationally. That would make the upstart very much the third party in British politics and they deserve to be taken seriously.

Be prepared for even worse news tomorrow.

Guido Fawkes' Order-Order blog is often very amusing and gives one an invaluable insight into the Westminster bubble. However I do think its portrayal of Ed Miliband as North Korea's President Kim Jong Un is a bit below the belt - even though there are a number of aspects both have in common:

From a personal standpoint I do not really care what would happen to UKIP if we left the EU, I would guess that Labour or the Conservatives would have to take the baton up eventually. For me UKIP is a tool to get us out of the EU and for us to regain controls over our own laws and our borders. If Labour or the Conservatives had suggested the same then I would have supported them and its for that reason I find people here at BF have been a little harsh pointing the finger at UKIP supporters implying that they are racist. The majority of people who will have voted UKIP are just ordinary people like myself who are just fed up with the deluge of Eastern Europeans into the UK and the interference of the EU in our justice system.

I have heard people say here at BF that people voting UKIP are using it as a protest vote, I think we can now rubbish that theory, people have voted UKIP for the points that I have raised above. Labour and the Conservatives have slipped up here not realising how strongly a lot of people feel about immigration, people want to see things being done not the usual lip service given to the subject.

I am sure we will be seeing Nigel's smiling face a lot more tomorrow across the media.

As Markham stated, "be prepared for even worst news tomorrow".

Come back Mr JohnAsh, no good popping in and awarding agree and disagree marks, get involved again, you did start this riveting thread after all

Very well put Timmers!

One reason that the political elite is so supportive of the EU is that it's simply a sop to their corporate backers who see EU migration as being a good source of cheap labour. "British jobs for British people" is not a pledge you'll find included in any of the major parties' manifestos for next year's elections. Save one: Ukip.

But for me, that's a secondary consideration. Label me "little Englander" if you wish but I want to see a return to a situation where it is a British Parliament that passes laws for British people and not faceless, unelected Eurocrats who get their diktats rubber-stamped by the so-called European Parliament. Kuya has quite rightly pointed-out the evils of TTIP which the EU is currently considering. No one in their right mind wants to have that foisted upon them but if we're not careful, it may well be. And then we'll be at the mercy of not only the EU but Corporate America as well. A truly nightmarish scenario.

I'm sure it hasn't escaped your attention but JohnAsh hasn't given either you or Dave any negative marks since he decided he could no longer stay away. The only negative marks he's awarded - and there have been three such since last Sunday when he said he was going - have been to my posts. Since both of you have been just as pro-UKIP as I, or even more so, I conclude that he's simply disagreeing with my right to post here rather than anything I have to say. It's a continuation, if you will, of his cyber-harrassment aimed at me personally.

But if that assessment is incorrect, then one can surely conclude that he doesn't support the notions of "British jobs for British people" and that British laws should be made only by a British Parliament. One can also conclude that he favours TTIP. That'd be an acceptable stance if he lived in the UK, but he doesn't and so would be largely unaffected.

As far as I'm concerned the dislike, disagree, dumb, bad spelling and old awards should be removed from BF, I have not used any of these and never will because I think it is disrespectful to my fellow BFs here. We ALL make spelling mistakes, dislike peoples posts and so on but it is better to reply to the post in writing explaining why and on occasion agreeing to disagree to maintain harmony. On super sensitive subjects like politics and religion tensions can rise and we will never agree with each other all the time, for me that is the beauty of posting on these subjects as it gets a little bit of that anger out of you putting your point across in writing.

If you think about it, without those disagrees and dislikes yourself and John wouldn't have crossed swords, or maybe not nearly as much . Both yourself and John put out some excellent posts which have helped many people you don't even know which you should be both proud of. I for one enjoy reading and replying to your posts, and I'm sure I'm speaking on behalf of many of the regular BF posters here when I say that.

You know what they say in both the UK and the Philippines, "if you have nothing good to say then don't say it" (as far as the negative rating buttons go anyway).

Sorry Tim, couldn't resist.

I forgot to mention the optimistic button obviously

Well, yes, you make a good point. The primary thrust of this Forum is to provide help and guidance to those seeking visas for the UK and information about moving to and living in the Philippines and the UK. To my mind, there's only one "vote" that's applicable and is conspicuous by its absence: "thanks". The use of the "bad spelling" vote by someone who is equally prone to make spelling and grammatical mistakes is laughable and illustrates hypocrisy.

I'm afraid our disagreement is far more deep-seated than that.

Thank you!

A sentiment with which I agree.

Did you miss this bit Jim?

You know what they say in both the UK and the Philippines, "if you have nothing good to say then don't say it" (as far as the negative rating buttons go anyway).

Don't you just love it here

That's why I don't post much, just a bit of humor

I could have given you a negative there Jim, you've spelt humour the American way

Note, no retribution on my part.

That's a very natural and understandable reaction; in your place I'd feel the same. But I wonder if you will feel just as disenchanted with the party you've loyally supported over the years as I have over mine.

To be fair, we don't know what they will be until that party publishes its GE manifesto. I'd be very surprised if they come up with a manifesto for government - indeed I don't think it would be at all wise for them to do so. More likely is a manifesto for coalition.

Tim, are you related to John Ash

Its interesting that we are talking of coalitions here, a few months ago that wouldn't have been thought or heard of.