When and where will the next big one hit?

"Ask any geoscientist about predicting earthquakes, and they'll tell you it's risky business. After balking at the word "predict," they may begin to speak in terms like "levels of uncertainty," "low-probability events" and "inexact art."

And they're right to be wary.

A team of six seismologists is currently on trial in Italy for failing to predict the magnitude-6.3 quake that hit the city of L'Aquila in April 2009. Prosecutors argue that the seismologists gave the public imprecise and incomplete information ahead of the deadly earthquake, which killed 309 residents. Despite an international petition signed by nearly 5,000 scientists in support of the seismologists, if the prosecution wins the case, they will be convicted of manslaughter."


http://www.livescience.com/18978-big-earthquake-prediction.html

Re: When and where will the next big on hit?

This is an article from last year, but nonetheless completely relevant. Seems a bit like predicting the weather

But for someone living in an earthquake prone region it is interesting to see the limitations on prediction as things stand just now and what goes into those predictions.

They were eventually convicted of manslaughter.

"Defying assertions that earthquakes cannot be predicted, an Italian court convicted seven scientists and experts of manslaughter Monday for failing to adequately warn residents before a temblor struck central Italy in 2009 and killed more than 300 people.

The court in L'Aquila also sentenced the defendants to six years each in prison. All are members of the national Great Risks Commission, and several are prominent scientists or geological and disaster experts."


http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57537288/

I don't that's a career path that I'd take! Not sure I agree with the verdict. If the "prediction" was low according to the data they had at their disposal then I'm not sure why they were convicted. If the data shows otherwise then yes the "prediction" was incorrect. Again, if it's lack of knowledge from analysing the data, then there shouldn't be any "predictions" made in the first instance. The key word for me here is "prediction"

I agree. Its the predictive element to their work that is difficult. And thats why they have to resort to expressions such as "high risk" and "low risk"etc

And for the layman.... I guess we have that kind of information at our disposal and can make an informed decision on where we choose to live and the risks involved. We know the risks of unprotected sex ...........similar thing.

Expert on geohazard assessment and management explains effects of M7.2 quake

Here is a Philippine geologist summarising the state of prediction of earthquakes. He makes a few good points which I identify with. The most notable one is that of prediction based on the buildup of stress in the local rock. Every piece of rock has a point at which it will give, under stress, though it varies from rock type to rock type, so it is possible to identify stress buildup in the bedrock and predict roughly the time it will rupture (earthquake). You know the stress point at which said rock will rupture and you can measure the stress....you know when the quake is likely to happen.

Incidentally, fracking is the act of artificially stressing the rock until it ruptures.

He also mentions measurement of seismicity. Something that is expensive to do. But notice he also mentions GPS. Which brings me back to my thread of some weeks back....whereby an app can be used in a network of smartphones with GPS to give an early alert.

And interestingly he goes on to say that the churches that collpased were built of limestone BLOCKS without rebar.

He also talks about the origin of the Chocolate Hills.

He talks about Geohazard maps in particular relation to housebuilding. And suggests that they are used when rebuilding takes place. He states that no building should take place on any fault zones.....

And he talks about the West Valley Fault.

http://anc.yahoo.com/video/expert-geohazard-assessment-management-explains-032839426.html

When will be the next hit? Someone I know is very good with feng shui and has come up with this analysis -

"October 15, 2013 - Bohol Earthquake (7.2 magnitude)
Year of the Water Snake, Month of the Water Dog, Day of the WOOD TIGER. The 7 Star was up on this day. The closest bad date was October 12. 3 days BEFORE October 15. Lunar month covers 10/5 - 11/2.

The NEXT Tiger date wherein the 7 Star is also up will be on NOVEMBER 20, 2013. Its going to be a METAL TIGER day. 3 days AFTER November 17 which is another BAD DATE (posted the list months before.) Lunar month coverage is from 11/3 to 12/2. Its going to be the month of the Water Pig.

FYI. Snake is NOT in harmony with the Pig. The 7 Star is one which promotes bloodshed which can lead to deaths. And luck may it be good or bad often if not always comes in 3s."

Feng Shui is some sort of science as well but I'm not saying to believe or take it as it is. Let's see what will happen

Nice one. Like astrology eh...

The ring of fire is unlikely to become more stable

Very unlikely, not until the Pacific closes and Australia has rammed up the backside of Eurasia.

The other point he makes is on the epicentre and why there was no tsunami. A network of measuring devices in place would be beneficial here.