The South China Sea conflict, as seen by the New York Times today "shark and minnow"

http://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics...ail&utm_term=0_171f237867-f32544a107-24572097

Re: The South China Sea conflict, as seen by the New York Times today "shark and minn

Some good pics and maps. Its easy to see how Vietnam and Malaysia are also peeved.

So Palawan will be a shore base for Chinese support of their offshore oil and gas industry....

Re: The South China Sea conflict, as seen by the New York Times today "shark and minn

Spratly Islands group, situated in the West Philippine Sea. This area is widely believed to contain massive gas reserves, and has consequently been drawing strong interest from the adjacent countries of Brunei, China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan and Malaysia!

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration in a March 2008 report, that areas surrounding the Spratly Islands could hold as much as 266 trillion cubic feet of gas. The Chinese have talked in terms of "the second Persian Gulf."

Recto Bank / Reed Bank

The bulk of the Spratlys' gas reserves is thought to be within the locality of Recto Bank. Philippine Energy Secretary Jose Rene Almendras has said the estimated natural gas deposits in Recto Bank are enough to last for more than a century. Almendras also said that the Philippines is "sitting on a pot of gold" and in the region of $26.3 trillion dollars worth.

These are only estimates, just like our shale gas estimates. You never know what the true figures are until you have got the stuff out of the ground.

Re: The South China Sea conflict, as seen by the New York Times today "shark and minn

Say the Chinese did stealthily nab the whole lot. Any drilling and production operations would be highly vulnerable to attack. They would have to provide military support for their rigs, platforms, FSO's, pipelines, oil tankers, support ships, helicopters, other fixed wing crewing flights, airport and heliport, potentially. That would be a colossal operation to defend so far from the Chinese mainland.

Without the co operation of the Philippines, the Vietnamese and the Malays it is difficult to see how they could ultimately carry such an audacious long game of chess, all the way through to their desired conclusion i.e. to fuel the Chinese homeland.

Any fixed platforms or mobile rigs will be sitting ducks from a variety of angles and military or guerilla type actions.

Re: The South China Sea conflict, as seen by the New York Times today "shark and minn

I can bore for Britain on this subject, so I may as well start:

First, here is the Chinese claim:



This is Zhou En-Lai's "nine dash line". The original claim was made by the Koumintang regime before 1949 on the basis of old maps, this was slightly modified and re-stated by the PRC.

Re: The South China Sea conflict, as seen by the New York Times today "shark and minn

Now, here are a few other ways of looking at it:

Re: The South China Sea conflict, as seen by the New York Times today "shark and minn

This is a particularly good one:

Re: The South China Sea conflict, as seen by the New York Times today "shark and minn

Another way of looking at it - 200 mile limits:

Re: The South China Sea conflict, as seen by the New York Times today "shark and minn

Now look at this - China's longer term ambitions:

Re: The South China Sea conflict, as seen by the New York Times today "shark and minn

As Bob Couttie has pointed put, the origin of the "nine dash line" is a Ming dynasty legal fiction; after the voyages of Zheng He further seagoing was prohibited and no Chinese could go more than three miles from China on pain of death.

This did not suit the merchants of South China who were accustomed to trade with Luzon, the Visayas, Borneo and the Vietnamese Empire. So they defined the South China Sea as "China".

The underlying problem is that NOBODY in China can disagree with Zhou EnLai who is the ultimate Good Guy and very dead.

So the Party, having started down the path of nationalism, cannot back down.

The Third World War is therefore inevitable, and it starts here, with the Philippines playing the part of Belgium.

Re: The South China Sea conflict, as seen by the New York Times today "shark and minn

What about the Roman analogy? And do you believe the Chinese will realistically achieve their ambitions? And in what timeframe?

Re: The South China Sea conflict, as seen by the New York Times today "shark and minn

I do not see any way in which the Party can do anything other than continue with their assertion of sovereignty over all the places that once paid tribute to the Celestial Empire. If they were to do so, the public would react violently against them as "traitors".

The Party have lost all claim to legitimacy on the grounds of being pure and honest and reforming the system; the scale of corruption is awesome and whilst "anti-corruption campaigns" continue these are simply ploys in the infighting for control of the Party.

The CCP have allowed the genie of Chinese nationalism out of the bottle, quite cynically, because it is the last card that they can play. Xi Jinping is particularly bad in this respect.

Consequently China will continue to expand until it meets someone or something willing to fight.

The next step after grabbing the South China Sea will be the assertion of sovereignty over the Philippines on the grounds that the Datus of Luzon and the Visayas paid tribute to the Emperor and so the Philippines is a client state of China.

The only nation showing signs of wanting to stand up to China at the moment is Japan; however we will see what South Korea does about China's instruction to them NOT to sell fighter aircraft to the Philippines...

South Korea itself is of course a former client state, as is Vietnam...

I do not see any way in which this can be avoided; the CCP is generally popular in China and there is no alternative in sight.

Re: The South China Sea conflict, as seen by the New York Times today "shark and minn

That being the case, some folk need to brush up on their Chinese then....

Re: The South China Sea conflict, as seen by the New York Times today "shark and minn

Lived in Mainland China for five years and in Hong Kong (very different place) for seven.

I'd rather fight them. No assimilation to the Borg for me, thank you. Greedy, arrogant, dishonest, currupt, racist b'stards.

That comment does not apply to Hong Kong people, most of whom will agree with it.

Re: The South China Sea conflict, as seen by the New York Times today "shark and minn

I work for them!

The racism is on a different scale; they are actually taught in school that they are descended from Pekin Man unlike the rest of us "Africans", so they are actually not the master race but the master species!

Re: The South China Sea conflict, as seen by the New York Times today "shark and minn

Oh sh1t......