Territorial Dispute with China: Philippines to Move "Major Forces" to Subic Bay

In Olongapo politics, the big issue at the moment is not the forces that will be using the base but the coal burning power station, which "should be" upand running in good time for the 2016 elections..

There is a palpable rise in anti-Chinese feeling in much of the country. I'm told that Davao's Chinese community - and it's one of the larger ones in the country - is mainly from Hong Kong and they appear to be rather supportive of the Philippine position.

The NPA - New Peoples' Army - is of course the military wing of the Communist Party which is possibly funded by Beijing via proxy accounts in third party countries. It would be more cost-effective - and less chance of a trace back to China - for the NPA to obtain their weapons from any one of the illegal gun-makers on Cebu paid for via a proxy account. As for the rounds, well they're stolen from the PAF and PNP.

Historically, NPA policy, for twenty years and more, was to help themselves from the armories of the PAF and PNP. My ex-wife was an NPA supporter in her youth and she certainly knew how to strip an M16, but was unfamilar with AK47.

There have been a handful of reports of the NPA using AK47s; if true, this means they have received one or more shipments from outside the Philippines.

I don't think the NPA was funded by China in the past, and certainly their extremely fractious history, with a long series of very bloody internal purges, masterminded by the Dutch-resident Jose Maria Sison, would typically discourage the Chinese, who hate disorder. But times may be changing.

Incidentally, I think the power issue is about to "go critical" - it already is in MIndanao, and Luzon will be short of power by 2016 - election year...

"The US is boosting its military assistance to the Philippines with 50 million dollars set to be provided in aid along with more navy vessels. That's as tensions in the region continues to rise over disputed resourse-rich territories in the South China Sea. Analysts say its an increasingly assertive China, that seems to be the real reason for Washington's growing engagements in the region."

The anti fracking campaign isn't going to help.

I imagine that when the brownouts occur then people will become more amenable to Frack Gas in the UK.

I thought it was the acute shortage of generating capacity that's the problem, rather than a shortage of "cheap" fuel.

There are several areas of concern in the UK. Generating capacity is one of them. Gas supply is another as Britain imports gas to make up the shortfall. And gas storage capacity has been an issue. Cheap gas isnt so much of a problem as having control of the UKs gas supply. As things stand we depend on the outside world for some of our energy supply which makes us vulnerable.

Fracked shale gas has the potential to be cheap but when it comes down to it, to eliminate social and environmental costs then not all of the potential reserves might be exploitable or exploitable cheaply. That all remains to be seen.

There's not a shortage of (cheap) fuel in the Philippines. There is a shortage of available (cheap)fuel. But there is plenty of it there in the Philippines.

http://www.forumenergyplc.com/operations/oilandgas/overview.aspx

"And what makes the Recto Bank so attractive? According to a Philex Petroleum report released last year, a seismic survey of the Recto Bank indicates probable reserves of 4.666 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. A survey by Forum Energy of London has noted that another interpretation of the same data by Weatherford Petroleum Consultants said the prospective reserves could reach as high as 16.612 to 20 trillion cubic feet of natural gas."

"The Philippines presently has only one domestic source of natural gas which is Malampaya located northeast of the Recto Bank. Malampaya, at the start of operations in 2002, had natural gas reserves of 3.7 trillion cubic feet. It was scheduled to provide gas supply for 20 years to power plants with a capacity of 2,700 megawatts. In ten years Malampaya will run out of natural gas.

The Recto Bank reserves could provide 1 ½ to 5 times more gas than Malampaya and could conceivably supply more than half of our country’s power requirements. It could bring down the price of electricity with the added advantage that natural gas is clean energy unlike coal."

http://www.philstar.com/opinion/2013/08/11/1076151/china-watch

Thanks for adding to my knowledge and understanding, John. Last time I was "home" the new LNG terminal being constructed at Milford Haven was beset with planning problems which, fortunately, seem to have been overcome. As for "fracked" gas, I believe that the companies involved need to win hearts and minds which necessarily means a slow and gradual progression. Provided those companies don't put profits before people and the environment - and there are no major disasters - then all well and good. But the industry must never be allowed to be self-regulatory, however tempting that might be to a government.

The price, and availability, of electric power is one of the thinks that prevent the Philippines from industrialising; the others are regulatory issues that could be solved quite quickly, given the will, but he power issue needs long term investment and as it stands no-one will invest in a project that lasts longer than the administration...

I notice that the maintenance funding for the Bataan nuclear plant has just been cancelled - that could have been converted to gas...

And on the matter of natural gas supplies the majors (oil companies) are hanging back because of the Chinese factor.

Lesson learned with Piper Alpha. To a degree.

Yes, regulating the process of fracking is the key. The oil industry in the UK has got quite good at it. This quality needs to be maintained and overspill into the onshore fracking industry. I think it will, but convincing Joe Public isnt going to be easy.

You'd think there'd be unqualified support for this but, alas, there are a number of lawmakers who are deeply opposed to the US re-establishing a presence on these isles. But there are also calls for Chinese citizens, currently in-country, to be closely monitored lest they become fifth columnists.

The recent "Hainan Expedition" was a fishing exercise in both senses of the term and China will now feel emboldened knowing it can enter Philippine coastal waters with impunity. I suggest she would have fared less well had a few ships of the US Pacific Fleet been around as they would not have been intimidated with quite the same ease.

The Philippines Left is stuck in the 1950's (and living in UP Los Banos). Hostility to the Chinese will be easy to whip up as citizens of Chinese descent tend to be more successful in life (most of the nation's sucessful capitalists are of Chinese descent).

I hope you are right! My main area of concern would be if fracking were to take place near former coal mines - the possibility of shaft and tunnel collapse would be present, no?

I would hope that due consideration will be given to aquifers, old coal mines and all. It isn't difficult to regulate this sort of thing. Like I said in an earlier post about BHP in Liverpool Bay they had to apply for clearance from a huge number of local authorities, governments, river authorities, fishing authorities, wildlife authorities etc etc etc before they could drill in Liverpool Bay, which not only juxtaposes with Blackpool Pleasure beach and the like but Hydrogen Sulphide was produced to the surface so safe procedures / practices had to be put in place to deal with all of that. And it worked. Well.

I could see the Blackpool lights and the Liver Centre from the rig. BHP had to conduct a full environmental impact survey before submitting applications to drill. Cuadrilla or whoever would have to do the same and that would include taking into account mine shafts if they might involve being a conduit to surface or an aquifer or if they were shallow enough to be a hazard to those on the surface, then yes those too. Its hard to foresee Cuadrilla not being careful as they know that one ferkup and that would be their last. It's in their best interests to do the right thing.

By the way, if you know where the mine shafts are then it's perfectly possible to steer around them if need be. They have great technology for that.

I have just noticed that the RSPB has raised an objection to Cuadrilla's work. And claim that Cuadrilla havent carried out an environmental impact assessment. So, we shall see.