Immigration becomes a major topic in 2014 I guess this is a no brainer, immigration is (and pretty much always was) a hot topic and with the next general election drawing closer, the topics which the political parties want to become talking points will find their way into the newspapers. Plus, in March the appeal against the High Courts’ decision that the £18,600.00 minimum income threshold is far too high, comes into play. I predict the Home Office will lose this appeal and the threshold will be dropped to something like £13,500.00 per year and the potential earnings of the visa applicant will come into play – thus kicking up a **** storm in the press and becoming clouded with stories implying that Euro rules are allowing too many foreigners to come to the UK. And so... Remaining in the EU will become a political hot topic UKIP have done pretty well over the last few years, the Tories are moving to the right over many issues trying to woo back those disaffected UKIP supporters back to the Conservative fold. Plus the Lib Dems will try to separate themselves from the Tories after the last few years of being joined at the hip. And this will be done over Europe! The Lib Dems will stand out as pro European, the Tories will promise an in out referendum and Labour will insist that it has always been up to the electorate and they will also provide a referendum (though might skip on the details). And as 2014 draws to a close, the debate will intensify. The Smart Watch takes off Rumours have been circulating around for a few years that Apple are working on an iwatch (though they might need a different name because I think iwatch has already been copy-written). Samsung have already released their Smart watch and HTC are looking at producing one of their own. But what will a Smart Watch eventually look like? Well, I think they need to step away from the notion that a Smart Watch can be a small version of the ipod on your wrist, it will no doubt link up with your phone, providing notifications for when you get an email, text or phone call. But really, we should be able to switch off certain notifications (do you really want your wrist vibrating when Amazon email you their daily bargains?) and when the watch disconnects from the internet or from your phone it should still be at the very least – a watch. Perhaps some manufacturers will maintain the style of the classic watch but with hidden tech to help you with fitness, measuring your heart rate and does it really need a camera? I don’t think so.. A dead cert Blockbuster will fail The current movie trend of creating fewer movies but at a higher price might come for a massive kick in the mouth in 2014. There are huge movies lined up, most costing over $200 milion before the marketing comes into the cost and studios need to make about half a billion dollars or more per movie to make them worthwhile. And I predict that one of those big flashy movies will blow it at the box office and investors will be a little wary about backing another massive movie if they can’t be guaranteed their money back plus a profit. It might herald a return to more story driven dramas, comedies and far fewer actors able to command millions of dollars for their time. I’m certain one of the upcoming movies will fail, whether it is in 2014, 2015 or whenever. But I do think 2014 might be the year that Hollywood dreads. Manchester United will drop out of the Champions League As a Mancunian with inclinations to support the Red Devils, it pains me to admit I think that United might be in for a few painful years and our light Blue neighbours from across town will rise and rise to a level that will make Roman Abramovich cry. And I think it might be a very real possibility that Manchester United drop out of the top tier of Premier league clubs, thus failing to gain access to the Champions League. This in turn will cost them a huge amount of lost earnings and as a result it might be David Moyes for the chop. The loss could also be too much for United’s debt stricken owners and they might be forced to sell the club. There will be another huge bailout There will be another financial institution in need of tax payers money to bankroll their sloppy decisions in 2014. The reason I think this will happen is because there hasn’t been any new regulations to prevent andother big failure, the major players in the financial world are still largely unaccountable to the public and most politicians are unwilling or unable to produce laws to curb them. However, the next big failure won’t be a bank, but perhaps another kind of investment group that pensions rely on. And so the bailout will be passed because “those poor pensioners would suffer”. Zero hour contracts become a major scandal We’ve all suspected that zero hours contracts are masking the true unemployment figures, because if someone is employed but doesn’t actually work any hours their benefits aren’t classed as unemployment benefits. It masks the true number of people who are basically unemployed and therefore earn their sole income of the state. There may even be a few scandals of some people signing up to zero hour contracts for the sole purpose of getting their benefits without having to be asked (and answer) what they’ve done that week to find work. So for the true scrounger (those that don’t want to ever work) the zero hour contract is an ideal system that allows them to do as little as possible but still get their benefits (and perhaps some work for Christmas when they need the extra cash). So whether you stand to the left or right of the political divide, when the truth about zero hour contracts finally hits the headlines, it will cause you to become angry enough to make these contracts a massive political story for 2014.
I dont think the smart watches will take off, not in a big way. Their size is their limiting feature. Dont write off Man U just yet. That sounds a bit vague....which blockbuster? The £18600 threshold has already been breached.... I noticed you didnt mention the Scottish referendum....
You mean it isn't already and has been for the last ten or so years?! This won't be simply a major topic but will likely be the topic of the next 12 months. Yup I agree and the next election will determine whether we remain in Europe or not. Both the Lib-Dems and Conservatives have promised a referendum but Labour is ideologically-opposed and won't hold one - even if it might promise one. The Lib-Dems are a busted flush as far as Wesrtminster is concerned and even their most committed supporters realise that the party will go back to running councils which they do really rather splendidly. UKIP will die over the next 12 months, more out of embarrassment than anything else and that will be hastened by a more Euro-sceptic stance which I expect the Conservatives in government to promote. Who? I certainly think that there will be a major scandal that will affect the City and financial institutions which will, I think, involve foreign rather than British institutions. However British institutions may be caught-up in the fallout. The EU and the Euro-zone have recently been downgraded by the ratings agencies from AAA to AA+ and with the French economy in serious trouble, any further problems in the EZ would likely mean Germany can not continue to support the currency alone. Greece and Spain are likely triggers for a collapse of the Euro which I believe is likely by the next election at the latest. Zero-hour contracts must be outlawed full-stop. I do suspect that 2014 will be the year of increasing public disquiet and I think we're likely to witness - at best - mass marches and demonstrations or worse, civil disobedience and rioting. The trigger may well be directly attributable to migration from eastern Europe which will spawn anti-immigration and anti-EU feelings. Much depends on how many migrants arrive simply to take advantage of our welfare state and government ministers' reactions. But do expect a sharp rise in the crime rate. As far as my neck of the woods is concerned, it's a safe bet that the Philippines will be subjected to the forces of nature with around 24-30 serious storms and almost certainly at least one super-typhoon, probably at the end of the season. And earthquakes too but hopefully not as devastating as the Bohol/Cebu one. I predict that Janet Napoles will be tried and found guilty of tax evasion but friends in high places will ensure that she and the law-makers who are involved in the PDAF scandal will escape prosecution. The Pork Barrel itself will survive and be just as open to abuse but doubtless will be renamed. But the major story of 2014 will, I'm sure, be the Chinese extending its territorial boundary to its "9 dash line" and it will do this quite subtly at first. China has identified the Philippines as being the weakest militarily of the claimants to the Spratley Islands and therefore the easiest to pick-off and subjugate. This could take the following form: China will declare an Air Defence Identification Zone for its claimed area in exactly the same way as it did in the East China Sea. Initially all aircraft will need to seek permission before entering that zone which would affect flights between the Philippines and Korea, Hong Kong, Macau, mainland China, Cambodia, Thailand and west Malaysia. It will also affect flights to Europe and the Gulf States. Bit by bit, it will reduce the number of slots given to aircraft flying to or from the Philippines until that airspace is effectively a no-fly zone for Filipino aircraft. This it could easily enforce from bases in Hainan reinforced by its carrier which I believe will be based in the region. This may not be enough to persuade the Philippine government to concede so there may well be a show of naval might to reinforce the point. Added to that, I think China will want all Filipino OFWs working on its territories to be replaced by others including Indonesians. Provided China doesn't fire the first shot - or any shots - but merely uses its military might as a show of overwhelming strength, there is no reason for any American involvement and in the absence of a declaration of war by China, America will be forced to confine itself to crying foul. No amount of UN resolutions is likely to deter China which will simply veto them. Having disposed of the Philippine claim, China will turn her attention to the next weakest, Vietnam, which is almost a client state. By the end of the year, China will, I believe, have fully realised her ambitions as far as the Spratleys and South China Sea are concerned. As for what happens next, I suspect China has further ambitions where the Philippines is concerned and these may be voiced.
No, not full-stop. That would be an unmitigated disaster because it could potentially result in any and all freelance staff being pushed through PAYE. That makes no sense and would have an enormous impact on the UK economy, and especially our competitiveness. It would also ensure that the government's new fancy pants Real Time Information PAYE system would grind to a halt. No, what must happen I think is targeted legislation to ensure that zero hours contracts do not amount to worker exploitation. This is a hugely complex area with much overlap into the freelance market, so I would hope the government would tread extremely carefully here.
