Philippine Airlines: Victim of a Phoney War?

China has the second largest navy in the world, second only to America's but has more ships!

It has 290,000 servicemen and women of which 12,000 are marines and 35,000 are naval airforce personnel. As well as its carrier, its naval assets include 26 destroyers, 45 frigates, 56 conventional submarines, 13 nuclear submarines, 10 corvettes, 122 missile boats and 107 mine clearance vessels for a total of 653 vessels. The navy also has 14 bombers, 83 fighters (of which 16 are carrier-borne), 35 fighter-bombers and 113 interceptor/strike aircraft.

By comparison, the US Navy has 53 submarines, 52 destroyers, 24 frigates and 13 aircraft carriers. The US Navy totals just 285 vessels.

As far as the Philippines and the other affected nations are concerned, China does have effective control.

There's one very good reason why the US may not intervene: Iran.

More from the (US) Consortium of Defense Analysts: "China threatens war in the South and East China Seas".

From the same think-tank's web site:

The hawks in Washington have long yearned for regime change in Iran - but what they really want is its oil, of course - and keep pressing the administration to take action. Although Iran doesn't have anything like the military capability of the US, it does have friends including Russia and China added to which any military action against Iran could spark-off a much wider conflict involving Muslim countries around the world.

The Chinese navy may be big but how effective is it?

And as Methers indicates, there are other countries involved in the immediate vicinity.

I don't know, John, and have no particular desire to find out. However the mere sighting of a couple of its warships that escorted the Hainan fishing exercise late last year was enough to scare-away the Philippine Navy's corvettes (ex-RN) and one if its two Hamilton Class frigates.

Indeed so but they're so far not involved. China wants to finish its business with the weakest of all first. That said though, China is engaged on a "hearts and minds" offensive as far as Taiwan is concerned, perhaps realising that she could not successfully invade that country. And (communist) Vietnam is a client state.

I agree that China is engaged in trying to win over Taiwan peacefully, indeed the rationale for appointing CH Tung as Chief Executive of the Hong Kong SAR was that his family have extensive interests in Taiwan, but I don't think Vietnam is a Chinese client state. The two went to war in 1979 (when Deng told Kissinger that he was going to "teach the Vietnamese a lesson") and Vietnam heavily defeated China.

The politics of IndoChina are as complex and as much bound up with history as the politice of Europe.

Cambodia is closer to being a Chinese client state - at the moment - than Vietnam is

But China are on the brink of war with Japan.
Its all going on simultaneously. Looking at Chinese Filipino relations in isolation doesn't reflect fully what is happening in the region as a whole.

"The United States’ top diplomat said this week that the US will not walk away from Japan as tensions worsen in the Far East between America’s Asian ally and China regarding a heated territory dispute in the Pacific.

US Secretary of State John Kerry was meeting with Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida on Friday when he reiterated previous remarks from the White House about the Obama administration’s willingness to come to Japan’s aid if events escalate in the East China Sea.

Late last year, China declared a portion of the East China Sea between Taiwan and Japan to be Chinese territory, infuriating Japanese officials who had long considered that region to be within their control. In an almost immediate response, the US mobilized in the region and sent surveillance craft and B-52 bombers over the air defense zone in defiance of China’s wishes.

"We, the United States, are deeply concerned by the attempt to unilaterally change the status quo in the East China Sea," Vice President Joe Biden said back in December during a news conference held there alongside Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

Now speaking in Washington, DC two months later, Kerry this week hammered home the notion that the US won’t abandon Japan should an attack from China emerge."

http://rt.com/usa/kerry-kishida-china-japan-119/

Well guys. I have news for you. You may recall a thread I started a few weeks ago on Dragon Oil and the (potential) oilfield and block that straddles the continental margin that the 9 dash line appears to follow. There is a fair chance that there are good pockets of oil / gas in the deep water just inside the 9 dash line (the northen side). This kind of deepwater setting for hydrocarbons is quite common around the continental margins of the globe.

Just how close to the Palawan continental margin is the 9 dash line, I wonder. Looks like it tracks it most of the length of Palawan.

A link to a good article:

http://www.rappler.com/thought-leaders/civil-society/50061-shahani-diplomacy-ph-china-spunk-dignity

Ambassador Ramos-Shahani is the sister of former President Ramos.

And another thing. Its one thing the Chinese army defending land they have stolen from a neighbour. Its another thing them defending the entiriey of the South and East China Sea, so far from the homeland. A difficult ask.

Difficult? Possibly but certainly not impossible as the territorial claim is adjacent to the homeland. Have a look at the map included in the second quote in my reply #26 above and you'll see that China's (so far) ultimate ambition is to control all territory from its mainland out as far as and including Guam and the Palau archipelago. That would include subsuming the Philippines and Taiwan upon which it would place military bases - just as the US established bases in the UK during the Cold War. Much of the surveillance work could simply be done by placing geostationary satellites over the region.

Not only does China have a huge and growing modern navy, its airforce has undergone a rapid modernisation programme and currently comprises over 330,000 personnel and more than 2,500 aircraft of which around 1,600 are offensive. These include some 120 bombers, 72 fighter bombers, 515 fighters, 809 interceptors, 31 reconnaissance/AWACs, and 191 transporters. China is more than capable of defending its territory and even its expanded territory.

In yesterday's Philippine Star, one of its commentators published "Appeasement: The lessons of history" which concludes with:

History repeating itself. Exactly.

That's the point but there appears to be very little recognition of that internationally.

At the risk of sounding somewhat cynical, the Philippines is regarded by many in the outside world as a "banana republic" (with all that implies) which requires huge amounts of international aid to counter the effects of natural disasters but which may have hydrocarbons and other minerals in exportable quantities - assuming they can be tapped. The country is not viewed as being economically or strategically important to "the west" even though it borders major shipping routes.

Whilst the US almost definitely would rush to the assistance of Japan and South Korea - and possibly also Taiwan - were they to be threatened, I rather suspect America will be rather more hesitant in the case of the Philippines. Part of the blame for that can be laid squarely with local law-makers of a nationalistic persuasion who demanded a sizeable increase in the lease money the US paid for its bases at Clark and Subic Bay and since that would make the cost of the US' repair facilities here more expensive than back home in the US, the US pulled out. That decision was helped by Philippine refusal to allow nuclear-powered vessels within its 20 mile limit.

There are, as you know, two "elephants in the room" in the form of Iran and North Korea both of which are friendly towards China to a greater or lesser extent. I can well imagine a scenario whereby China keeps the US occupied by proxy. China could, with Iran's help, blockade the Straits of Hormuz and prevent access to the Gulf by "allied" (to the US) shipping. At the same time, China could stick the proverbial pin in Kim Jong Un's posterior and trigger a war against the south; that would keep the US 6th fleet well and truly occupied. Both events would be precursors to China's territorial land grabs in the East and South China Seas. It would face stiffer resistance from Japan but extending its territorial limits southeastwards would be a comparative 'walk in the park', in my view, especially if only one country, the Philippines, were to be affected initially.

Yesterday, a Bloomberg article quoted a statement made by the American commander of US Air Forces in the Pacific in which he described the parallels between modern day China and the Germany of the 1930s being drawn by the Philippine and Japanese leaders as 'unhelpful' and 'inappropriate'.

In a statement issued today, Malacañang shrugged off Carlisle's call for nations to tone down their remarks. A Palace spokesman is reported as saying that General Carlisle is a military commander and

The Philippine Department of Defense echoed the Palace's sentiment and pointed out that it is China - not the Philippines or Japan - which is escalating tensions over the disputed areas of sea. Defense Secretary Voltaire Gazmin is reported as stating:

How come the Philippines isn't reciprocating in their airspace?