Farage Over The Moon at UKIP Gains

"UKIP leader Nigel Farage hails gains in council elections across England as early results come in, while Labour wins the South Shields by-election."

http://www.bbc.com/news/


1424: "Conservative former cabinet minister John Redwood says UKIP's surge shows a referendum on leaving the EU should happen soon."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-21240020

1456: "Prime Minister David Cameron responds to news of UKIP's gains, saying: "We need to show respect for people who have taken the choice to support this party and we are going to work really hard to win them back.""

From my travels, I find that most people in the UK are cheesed off with immigration.

And lying politicians.

Yes. And my feeling is that we don't want to cheese them off any more as we have foreign wives (unless they have citizenship that is).

EVEN IF they have citizenship.

These are people who will happily chant "Go back to where you came from!" at my son (Ipswich Hospital maternity block, in his case, but almost all his school friends came from the same place, so it will be a bit crowded...)

Yes. Agreed.

And I have a problem with Indefinite Leave to Remain. It isn't definite. So it can be messed with. So I postulate that anyone serving ILR won't be home and dry under UKIP.

Does anyone seriously believe that UKIP will achieve a position of power?

I'm finding it hard to see how any political party is going to win sufficient seats to secure an overall majority. I personally only see coalition governments.

But i'm no political expert so it's just an opinion.

From here (144 seats just now) UKIP can do one of four things:

1. Replace the Tories as the natural party of the Right in British politics

2. consolidate their position as a protest party of the Right

3. Screw it up and fade away before the next General Election.

4. Move Left and populist (read - "anti -immigrant") and take votes from Labour in the inner cities.

1. is possible - the DUP replaced the UUP in Norn Iron - but it probably requires a Paisley level of organisational skills and self discipline and Farage does not possess those.

2. still requires some discipline, but is quite achieveable; if this is exerted the Right will be permanently out of power in Britain as their vote will be split.

3. is the most likely outcome; UKIP have assembled a coalition of nutters and there is every chance of them squabbling, encouraged by the well organised Tory shire machines

4. is an unpleasant possibility; it will be heralded by a coup against Farage, whom I accept is no racist, by the ugly faces whom he has recruited.

In the event of 4, will the last decent British citizen please turn out the lights?

If enough nutters, fruitcakes and closet racists vote for them. Yes.

I suspect there are more than 4 options.

Whilst in fantasyland how about UKIP splits all the right-wing votes thereby giving Labour a thumping majority without Labour actually increasing their share of the vote at all

You could apply that to any of the parties.

But how likely do you feel it is that any single party will secure enough votes to end with an overall majority at general election?

Possibly the most likely if Cameron et al don't pull a rabbit out of the hat on Europe.

Politically, it has certainly been an interesting day.

I get the feeling even UKIP are a little shocked.

Here's a funny thing, I watched an interview with a young man named Bogdan from Lithuania
(living in Boston) who expressed the view that the town had far too many European immigrants determined to bring their culture with them.
He said there are too many immigrants.

Agree there are more than four options but I will claim that that one is my option (2)!

That's OK
Claim it.
I don't argue with anyone about politics.

Is it necessary for one party to have an overall majority to get good government?

I just saw Bogdan.

Nice chap though.