ITV Leaders Debate

Projecting ahead, consider one of the realistically possible outcomes. Cameron and the Tories win the election but are short of a majority. They look around and look at UKIP as possible bedfellows. Are we realistically saying that when Cameron looks at the handful of UKIP MPs (being generous here) he will say to himself "well I need these guys support and I am willing to have an immediate general election" just to get all 3 or 5 of them on board?

I just cannot see that happening realistically. Especially if the Lib Dems are also involved. Sorry. I cannot see the Kippers getting anywhere, this time around.

That would depend on the outcome of that referendum surely? If the result is to exit the EU then Ukip has fulfilled its raison d'etre and will surely disband.

Yes, that is precisely what will happen, John, though he'll most likely approach the Ulster Unionists first. Ukip won't be Cameron's first choice of partner and he won't want to be in coalition with them but he will very likely be persuaded by the pragmatic Osbourne and May to enter into a confidence and supply arrangement with that party.

That was the fear last year. Since then Ukip's membership has been swelled by disaffected Labour supporters who have seen their jobs disappear. I believe that at the local level, Ukip are not challenging Euro-sceptic Tory candidates.

Thats why I think Miliband isnt bothered by UKIP. He is disparaging about their policy (no plural) and unperturbed about their potential vote count.

Will he need to? Will the LibDems let him?

Imagine. Cameron has the Lib Dems onside. He looks at UKIP. UKIP want an immediate referendum. He loses the LibDems who leave Cameron and UKIP without a majority.

That makes sense. His popularity on TV the other night will have certainly made some MP's a tad nervous.

Yes and yes! At the end of the day, both the Tories and what will remain of the Lib-Dems will want to retain power and Ukip's MPs will be a means to that end. Cameron loses at least one MP (it may be two) automatically as he's the Speaker and therefore can not vote.

That will depend on whether Clegg loses his seat or not. But even if he does return as Deputy PM, he could very well be persuaded to re-adopt the position he held at the 2010 election campaign where he supported a referendum on Europe. If Clegg loses his seat as is likely, then the new leader may agree to the referendum. ISTR a referendum was supported by Lib-Dem MPs but their leader changed his mind. But when all's said and done, pragmatism and a thirst for power will win the day.

But...the Lib Dems dont have to cuddle up to the Tories to gain power. They could walk. Agreeing to a referendum to apease a handful of UKIP MPs is unlikely. UKIP would need more than just a mere handful to have that sort of leverage.

Indeed they could. But they won't. Prior to 2010, the Liberals haven't been in power in living memory. They've tasted power and like it. They want more of the same, please. And it's not just Ukip that wants a referendum, the Tories do too. The only difference between them is that of timing.

Thats just one interpretation of the outcome. Need to redflag it for close review on May 8th.

When I said walk I meant cuddle up to Labour. To which you are bound to reply, no they wont.

So they dont have to tolerate UKIP and their policy to gain power.

It's no more and no less than an educated guess made four and a half weeks before polling begins.

Yes. The Tories want a referendum. But not until 2017. Thats been apparent all along. The point is that UKIP will not have the numbers and neither the Tories or Labour will be that desperate to want their paltry voting potential.

There is a very good chance that the election outcome and ensueing coalition government will be decided without UKIP getting a squeak in.

Farage's voice will be a shout in the wilderness. Nobody will be around to listen to him.

I prefer some of the educated guesses made by the professionals. Sorry.

I think at this moment in time none of the professional so to speak political commentators have a clue who will come out on top and who is going to be the bed partner of which party if a coalition has to be formed again.

If anything the TV debate has made things closer as none of the leaders stood out.

I suddenly find myself agreeing with you.

But what I am saying is that of the range of permutations, UKIP hijacking British politics is the unlikeliest of the potential outcomes. Unless things change radically bewtween now and May 7th and a shed load of voters lose their marbles and vote for UKIP.

You're giving the game away now John with that new avatar of yours, we now know who you are voting for

ComRes Poll latest...

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...oll-nigel-farage-not-win-thanet-south-mp-tory