Although Estrada fully intends to seek re-election as the Mayor of Manila next year, he may decide to be the vice-presidential running mate of Jejomar Binay, the current VP who wants the top job. According to the Rappler, they did lunch a couple of weeks ago and it would appear that the idea was floated at that time although Erap is now feigning surprise. Meanwhile on Mindanao, Duterte is coming under pressure to announce his presidential candidacy and several Senators have let it be known that they'd love to be his running mate, including Miriam Santiago. In a recent ABS-CBN News interview, he hinted that he could be persuaded but he lacked the necessary financial backing needed to mount his campaign. I think it's fair to say that Duterte + Santiago would be a much better combination than Binay + Estrada.
Obviously Duterte won't find the finances or be offered any, to carry on the campaign because the people with money are scared to lose the crooked ways they actually manage to get all that money in the first place... So they ain't going to pooh on their doorstep, are they...??
I have been told a different story; my informant is the Filipino bureau chief of an international news agency and he is based in Manila. 1. Binay and Estrada set up the United Nationalist Alliance ("UNA") as their campaign vehicle ,with the backing of JP Enrile, some years ago. 2. Enrile is under arrest. 3. There has been a spectacular falling out between Binay and Estrada over whether a particular tract of land falls under Manila or Makati. This is because many of the land titles in the zone have fallen in, so the land is due to be re-titled and sold again - mucho, mucho, dinero... 4. This caused Estrada to pull back from Binay. 5. Estrada may back Poe, not because he was a friend of her father, but because he thinks she might win, and he needs to find support for his sons. 6. Duterte cannot win but is sniffing around for a financial backer who will pay him to run so as to split the vote for someone else. So is Santiago. In both cases their candidacy is a matter of getting not merely financial backing for their campaign but an increase in their personal wealth in return for stopping another candidate. 7. Binay's attacks on Poe seem to have backfired. 8. Besides the Boy Scouts, Binay also has the "Makati sister cities" programme - which is very extensive - under which he has supplied money to very many LGU's across the nation... which is why he still enjoys massive support especially in Mindanao, which is the "most feudal" of the regions.
I am tired of the puffery surrounding Duterte. The claim that Davao is "the twelfth safest city in the world" comes from the Philippine Inquirer citing the Numbeo.com website. And here is the Numbeo.com website's explanation of how its crime figures are calculated: http://www.numbeo.com/crime/indices_explained.jsp They are all based on the subjective impressions of those who visit the website, run through an algorithm. In other words, garbage in, garbage out. To see an attempt to report crime figures properly, here is the British Government's effort for 2014: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/crime-stats/crime-statistics/year-ending-december-2014/index.html
Actually, this, by the 90 year old novelist F Sionil Jose, is by far the best assessment of the forthcoming elections: http://www.philstar.com/sunday-life/2015/05/24/1457907/duterte-binay-poe-primer-next-president
I will now drop a name and say that I have the very great pleasure of knowing Frankie Jose. I first met him when I was working in Manila in 1995 and I asked him to give the closing address at a conference that I was running. He writes in English, not in Pilipino, because he is a proud Ilokano and despises the Tagalog language forced on him by successive Governments. He owns the Solidaridad Bookstore in Padre Faura and I recommend it to anyone who is in need of a real bookshop as opposed to National Bookstore. (Nobody who has not read the Rosales Novels can claim to know much about the Philippines...)
