We're still on course for the majority of people to "have a few scoops" on the 4th July then lots of hangovers on the 5th
Interesting comparison between Italy and Peru / Brazil where he points out the seasonality factor and the Brazil / Peru approaches to lockdown. And then he shows a remarkable correlation between the curves and influenza curves from way back.
Right now, I'm interested in what happens to the death toll at the end of July first two weeks of August after the pubs reopen. A week of incubation a week of normal illness progressing in some to a week of serious illness and in a few to a couple of weeks of ICU care about 5 weeks from infection to death. Every workplace which goes back to a semblance of normality and by extension every home will be sharing the social mixing going on in those pubs. It took as little 8 weeks of doing nothing in the UK to get us into this mess it will take as little again to get us back to where we have just been. I accept that we now have a treatment that helps reduce the deaths but a lot more people are going to die.
I don't see that as a valid comparison John, he's trying to imply that the change from exponential growth in cases to a reduction in new cases in Italy is purely seasonal, a bit strange that it coincides precisely with what you would expect from the imposition of quarantine. Without quarantine the Italian graph would have looked very different in late March early April. In all countries that have imposed a quarantine you have seen that shape within a couple of weeks of the start of the quarantine, remember the UK being two weeks behind Italy.
He studies the data all day long. It is what he does and is generally held in high esteem for that. On Covid 19 his theory is that lockdown or no lockdown the peaks are seasonal in the higher latitudes. A lot of data seems to be pointing that way as more and more is revealed. The comparison between Peru and Brazil is but one example where lockdown seems to have made no difference. I see your point about where would the Italian figures have been if quarantine had not been applied but he suggests it would have peaked and been on its way down some weeks ago anyway. Of course we cannot know that now but evidence from other countries suggests that might be the case. Of course it may seem immaterial but if it is a seasonal thing which I am beginning to believe it is, then this thing will be back next winter. There are many cases coming to the fore where people are being incubated and their Vit d levels are very low and Vit d is being administered. I am expecting a second wave just after Christmas 2020. Hopefully the vaccines will have materialised by then.
I'm expecting a second wave in September to October, and that's only if we ever get out of the first wave. Currently the Covid 19 symptom study which I joined https://covid19.joinzoe.com/ is reporting 3612 new daily cases in the UK, that's not tested cases Worldometer is reporting around 600 odd new tested cases daily, also note that on Worldometer the UK has not reported Total Recovered or Active cases for months and the Serious/Critical number has not changed for a week or more and is rarely updated. Yeah I am thinking of getting a Vitamin D test done, being overweight a lot will have dissolved in my fat but after nearly three and a half months I think my serum levels should be starting to get to an acceptable level.
The lymphocyte moderated response is not the only issue, the real question is why there is a strong inflammatory response in some people and more so in those who are older. T cells are the lymphocytes that were compromised by HIV they are not all powerful, it does appear that they are performing a role in defeating SARS-CoV-2 and we do have fewer as we age.
This makes a good read https://www.manchester.ac.uk/discov...d-what-it-might-mean-for-vaccine-development/
I've mentioned memory cells on these threads before, I've also mentioned ADE which this article addresses near the end. One of you posted a good study recently on understanding the mechanisms of how the virus actually infects and attacks people and the need for that understanding as a prerequisite in the development of a vaccine. The thing about T Cells is that they attack infected cells which means that if you have a lot of infected cells then large parts of you are going to die, T Cells don't attack the virus directly but identify infected cells that are replicating the virus and kill them.
Whenever the influenza season kicks in. You will have noted the studies on earlier coronavirus cases.
I've had flu like illness in June, I got sick the day after I arrived in the Philippines the first time and that was June, whatever it was I got it in the UK three or four days earlier. I've also had flu like illnesses in September, October, November regularly that's why I'm putting a lot of emphasis on the Vitamin D3 this year to protect against flu whether or not it has any effect against SARS-CoV-2. Just bought a vitamin D3 blood test which should arrive tomorrow want to get some indication of my levels after 15 weeks on a high dose.
I think there is so much evidence for it now i.e. vitamin d3 deficiency and immunity against Covid 19. Each and every one of us needs to take care of ourselves in this way until the people in power sort things out. I was watching Tom Watson speaking in November last year at a Public Health Collaboration meet and he said that whoever is at the helm needs to sort these things out based on a robust independent review of the role of big Pharma in our Pharmaceutical provision and the running of our National Health Service. People are having to ignore advice given out by the NHS to achieve a healthy state, in just the way he has. Should be interesting. Have you managed to get out into the sun much?
The U.K. the Jackass of the world? https://www.independent.co.uk/voice...wave-lockdown-social-distancing-a9584961.html
This is a quote from yesterday's New Scientist, the full article is probably behind a paywall I'm afraid. (just checked and it is not one of their free articles sadly) https://www.newscientist.com/articl...-coronavirus-kills-people-and-how-to-stop-it/
On TV this morning there was a specialist in Liverpool talking about the effect the virus is having on younger people where the virus affects the brain. He mentioned blood clotting as a means by which the virus gets past the blood brain barrier and attacks the brain.
So far it appears to get into everything, and in the US the trend is towards infections in younger people now and many are ending up hospitalised. This is also a bit shocking, long term lung damage in many cases although the dexamethasone will likely help reduce those numbers a bit in future.
