Highly unlikely that it would have made any difference at all John. Vaccines work by presenting inert or weakened virus particles to the immune system, this results in a healthy immune system designing and building Antibodies with the right chemical shape to bind to unique molecules called antigens on a virus and render it inert. The antigen signature of a virus is very specific and if you don't have antibodies that fit the antigens you are out of luck until your immune systems works out how to combat the specific invader. Each year's flu is slightly different I presume it mutates over that kind of timescale as it traverses the world. The real fear is that this new virus becomes seasonal like the flu.
those calculations dont take into account the many who have had the virus but had no symptoms. that would reduce the percentage a lot.
I am starting to take this coronavirus more seriously now. I hadn’t till now taken a lot of notice of it.
The numbers they are working from are the Chinese numbers where there are unreported cases and unreported deaths, there is also the point that deaths in the unreported infections have not caught up yet. That is why I am saying that we will get accurate numbers out of South Korea in the near future, watch the video that Mike posted the chap in he video is a Doctor and has been talking a lot of sense since this thing started.
Also there is something important that you need to be taking from this information, that 8% of the cases in Italy are in Intensive Care, that means hospital, if the number of cases climbs it is going to totally overwhelm the health care services everywhere and the people who need Intensive Care and who are not getting it will be dying, so you need to factor this in and to expect a hike in the death rate at that point.
Listening to radio today, they interviewed a french guy on oxford street London and he claims to have a consignment of 2000 face masks and had already sold 500 masks today at £10 each! I bet that's cash in hand!
Lousy epidemiology skills, he'e interacted with potentially hundreds of people, taken their money, money is a good vector for transmission of disease between people, he's been in close quarters with people, what if he had been unlucky enough to be already infected himself. Jeez.
One more point Malcolm plenty of flu cases go unreported as well, I rarely ever say anything to my Doctor when I get a chest cold of any kind, I only end up going to see a Doctor if I can tell I have additional worrying symptoms like I can feel fluid on my lungs last time I did that was about 5 years ago and the Doctor confirmed that I had fluid on my lungs. So the percentages still stack up.
Some relevant information from this page https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2 The basic reproduction number of this virus is estimated at between 1.4 and 3.9, when unchecked (i.e. not contained) each infection results in 1.4 to 3.9 new cases. By contrast Influenza has a basic reproduction number of 2 to 3 (that was for the 1918 Spanish flu) normal flu the value is about 1.4.
I am sure he will survive anyone taking a tube,visiting oxford street,visiting an airport etc is exposed,cant live our lives in fear On that principle high-street banks and busy supermarket tills would close.
Yep and there is an argument that all of that should have been happening a month ago to contain this as well as putting blocks on flights from a wider range of countries earlier. Most payments are card based now and many are now contact-less, i have not handed over cash in a shop for 2 months, although I did use cash last weekend to pay for beer in the pub.
As we have seen, the internet is full of fake news. I expect this will go into overdrive soon, although I will probably miss a lot of it as I am not on social media. The only site I visit is our forum.
Some of the anti-bacterial hand wash plastic bottles are being stolen at work. Probably because nobody can buy them in the shops.
