1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

China coronavirus spread is accelerating, Xi Jinping warns.

Discussion in 'News from the UK, Europe and the rest of the World' started by aposhark, Jan 25, 2020.

  1. Mattecube
    Offline

    Mattecube face the sunshine so shadows fall behind you Trusted Member

  2. Druk1
    Offline

    Druk1 Well-Known Member

  3. aposhark
    Offline

    aposhark Well-Known Member Lifetime Member

    The only way is containment so I think the UK should follow the lead of the USA and Australia and not allow anyone to board planes for the UK who has been in China.
  4. oss
    Offline

    oss Somewhere Staff Member

    What do they expect, the graph of the spread will be exponential, the number who die will increase much more dramatically than this in coming days.

    Still coming in at about 2.1 percent fatal, that's high for something that is proving to be fairly easily transmitted.

    SARS and Swine flu while more deadly were not so easily spread.
  5. walesrob
    Offline

    walesrob Administrator Staff Member

  6. Jim
    Offline

    Jim Well-Known Member Trusted Member

    • Winner Winner x 1
  7. aposhark
    Offline

    aposhark Well-Known Member Lifetime Member

    I was talking with my wife about this virus today and I had to tell her that the situation in the Philippines could be a lot more serious than the UK.
    The reason for this if the virus takes hold is that the infrastructure is weak over there and that many people will not have the money to pay doctors' fees :cry:
    • Agree Agree x 2
  8. Jim
    Offline

    Jim Well-Known Member Trusted Member

    And there's a lot more Chinese that visit Philippines tha the UK.
    • Agree Agree x 1
  9. aposhark
    Offline

    aposhark Well-Known Member Lifetime Member

    Yes, you are right about that, Jim. :erm:
  10. aposhark
    Offline

    aposhark Well-Known Member Lifetime Member

    One problem with viruses in Asia is that it does affect people on here more than most people in the UK in that most of us here have wives, fiancées, girlfriends, families or friends who have connections with the Philippines, and the Philippines is much, much closer to China (where the virus originated from) than here.
    Some of us have children over there and there are many Filipinos who have family over here.

    This brings stress into our lives as we have loved ones with strong bonds to us across many thousands of miles.
    At least modern technology can help with keeping in touch but I am sure many members here will be quite worried these days.
  11. Jim
    Offline

    Jim Well-Known Member Trusted Member

    I went into Dumaguete today it was like a ghost town, plenty of space to park the car, it's normally really busy just a few people milling around with mask on.
    • Informative Informative x 2
  12. Druk1
    Offline

    Druk1 Well-Known Member

    No grid-locked tricycles on perdices street?
    • Like Like x 1
  13. Jim
    Offline

    Jim Well-Known Member Trusted Member

    It was almost pleasant driving around town, still there were trike drivers looking for passengers. Robinson mall you can't normally get a car parking space due to the extension of the building, but plenty today. :like:
    • Informative Informative x 1
  14. Druk1
    Offline

    Druk1 Well-Known Member

    I haven't been to Dumaguete for maybe 5 years?I remember it 30 years ago as very quiet,5 years ago it was tricycle central :D I remember when the only decent shopping was in the original lee plaza.
    • Like Like x 1
  15. Jim
    Offline

    Jim Well-Known Member Trusted Member

    Have you been here at Christmas, I hate it may as well walk complete gridlock.
  16. Druk1
    Offline

    Druk1 Well-Known Member

    I have been there at Christmas,its getting incredibly busy compared to how it was,the population is swelling I guess.
    • Like Like x 1
  17. John Surrey
    Offline

    John Surrey Well-Known Member

    Very worried here - too many Chinese connections where we live - very poor health facilities - everything open to corruption - 20,000 cases in China today - over 400 dead - tip of the iceberg and media telling us it's not as bad as the Flu ???
  18. Druk1
    Offline

    Druk1 Well-Known Member

  19. Druk1
    Offline

    Druk1 Well-Known Member

  20. oss
    Offline

    oss Somewhere Staff Member

    7.7 billion people on the planet, let's estimate that similar numbers get infected as happened with Spanish Flu in 1918-19 that was about 33% so lets say 2.56 billion get ill of whom at the current fatality rate of 2% about 50.8 million could die.

    A couple of big assumptions there, one assumption is that it does not rapidly mutate into something less fatal (which it is in the viruses evolutionary interest to do) and secondly I'm just guessing at the overall spread and the number who might eventually be exposed to it.

    But really if this thing is easily transmitted then it'll very likely turn out something close to these numbers no matter how hard we try to contain it.

    The rate of spread is constrained by the lethality of the virus, the incubation period, the duration of the infectious period, particularly if it can spread before symptoms appear.

    Viruses can't survive for extended periods of time outside of a host, most rapidly decrease in potency within a day or two, many lose potency in hours or minutes, some do last a bit longer, so many factors are involved that really it requires observation of the spread to make any real predictions and that's a chicken and egg situation as by the time you have a big enough sample of observations it's probably gone so far as to be unstoppable.
    Last edited: Feb 4, 2020

Share This Page