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What's your prediction for the Presidential Election on the 9th?

Discussion in 'News from The Philippines' started by Methersgate, May 2, 2016.

  1. Methersgate
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    Methersgate Well-Known Member Lifetime Member

    Looked like Binay, until Trillanes and Caetanyo brought up the corruption.

    Then it looked like Poe, until the citizenship issue

    Then it looked like Durterte, but now there are more corruption allegations from Trillanes.

    Vice President looks like Marcos (yes really!) or Robredo (hope Robredo!)

    Place your bets...
  2. oss
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    oss Somewhere Staff Member

    No idea but I could not find anyone, apart from Ana, that was not supporting Duterte.
  3. Timmers
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    Timmers Well-Known Member Trusted Member

    Let me ask you a question Andrew, do you think it will make any difference to the man in the street who wins the election, as in will anyone be better off?
  4. Markham
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    Markham Guest

    Interestingly Roxas is nowhere to be seen, much to Aquino's acute embarrassment. The money is still on Duterte who, like Trump, is seeing his numbers rise with every new attempt to discredit him. But be wary of any accusatory statements coming from Trillanes; the chances are that he's not the one actually making them.

    I think your prediction that Marcos will be elected Vice President is sound and will ensure that the Marcos family fortunes grow exponentially for the next 5 years.
  5. Markham
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    Markham Guest

    Certainly not if Binay or Roxas win but, short of a rigged ballot, there's little chance of either winning. Poe, Santiago and Duterte are all running on anti-corruption tickets but only Duterte has any real credibility in tackling such crimes.

    Make no mistake, if Duterte wins, 'normal service' will be suspended for a few years but what's likely to emerge is a Parliamentary democracy with regional devolution of certain powers along Federal lines. That should benefit the man in the street in the medium to long term but there will be a deal of short term pain.
  6. Methersgate
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    Methersgate Well-Known Member Lifetime Member

    I see it quite differently, I am afraid, Mark.

    Of course Trillanes is not the original source of his accusations; they are coming from NICA. Any schoolboy can see that. Who else has the technology - undoubtedly supplied by the USA, and some of it probably Made in England*, to access bank acount data?

    If we ask ourselves "why?" we must conclude that the AFP do not think that Duterte will be their sort of President - he is much too friendly with the NPA and with the Moslem insurgents, he has wobbled alarmingly on the South China Sea, and he has threatened to rip up the Constitution. This isn't Marcos's AFP, any more than the PNP are Marcos' Philippine Constabulary.

    I don't know if you have friends in the AFP officer corps, but if you do, you will, I think, agree with me that they are a Constitutional Army, Navy and Air Force, very often with US training. They have taken an oath to uphold the Constitution.

    Now, what happens when our hero addresses the Makati Business Club - gathered to hear his economic programme? He rambles on, tells dirty jokes, says nothing to the purpose, and leaves without taking questions. Unsurprisingly the capital inflow becomes an outflow and the Peso starts to decline... how much further will it fall?

    I make no mistake - "normal service" will be interrupted and the Filipinos will have shot themselves in the foot again.

    As I have said elsewhere, I do not have a good opinon of people who prescribe "short term pain".

    *NICA is a very quiet organisation by Filipino standards but it is known to work closely with the CIA, Mossad, and MI6. I'd be surprised if it does not also get input from GCHQ
    Last edited: May 2, 2016
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  7. Methersgate
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    Methersgate Well-Known Member Lifetime Member

    Yes. I do. I think that if Duetrte wins, the economy will slide, the Peso will fall, there will be inflation as the automatic consequence, and the man in the street (including the man sleeping in the street) will be very much worse off.

    And that's before the impeachment proceedings.
  8. Methersgate
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    Methersgate Well-Known Member Lifetime Member

    My prediction is this:

    1 The InC will come out in support of Roxas and Marcos on Thursday. Hedging their bets.
    2. El Shaddai will come out in support of Roxas and Robredo on Sunday
    3. The CBCP will issue a pastoral letter to be read on Sunday warning against voting for Duterte, but will not endorse anyone.
    4. Come election day, Santiago will be nowhere. Binay will not win, Poe will not win, and either Roxas or Duterte will be President, with either Marcos or Robredo as Vice President.
    5. In the event that Duterte is elected, he will be impeached immediately. He will NOT be supported by the Army, so his threat to shut down the Legislature will not come to pass.
    6. If Marcos is the VP, he will be impeached as well and the Chief Justice becomes President pro tempore. It's in the Constitution.
    7. If Robredo is the VP, she becomes President.
    8. In the unlikely but possible event that Roxas closes the gap, there will be no problem. In any other circumstance, economic collapse is inevitable.

    Edited to add - the Director General of the Philippine National Police (PNP), Reynaldo Marquez, has said that "the PNP would not follow illegal orders."
    Last edited: May 2, 2016
  9. Timmers
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    Timmers Well-Known Member Trusted Member

    Sounds like you know your stuff when it comes to politics in the Philippines Andrew, do you have your own swingometer at home :)
  10. Methersgate
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    Methersgate Well-Known Member Lifetime Member

    I must declare an interest; I do have several friends in the media in Manila. And I was invited to join a pro-Roxas-Robredo group, and accepted. I am not neutral, here.
  11. Bootsonground
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    Bootsonground Guest

  12. walesrob
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    walesrob Administrator Staff Member

  13. Markham
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    Markham Guest

    In mid 2010 Mae and I were seated in one of our favourite watering-holes in Cebu, the Gustavian, when Bob Ward, its American Manager, came over and introduced us to a friend of his. We learned that he was a Professor (of History IIRC) at Hong Kong University and had just arrived in Cebu from a fortnight's visit to Davao. He described the city as "the Philippines done right" and attributed this to the then Mayor, Rodrigo Duterte. So enthusiastic was he about life there, everything from the purity of its water supply to its near crime-free status and position as the safest city in the country that we decided to visit the city. Our visit came just before the Manila hostage crisis which unfolded on the day of our return.

    I can only speak as I find. Davao was everything we'd been told it would be and we spent just under six very happy years there. At no time did we feel unsafe or ill at ease even in the heavily crowded streets during the annual Kadayawan Festival when thousands flock to the city from all parts of Mindanao and elsewhere. There were no occasions when we were asked for "tea money" by traffic enforcers, Police or Immigration officials - in fact my 13(a) Visa was processed faster (and cheaper) there than it would have been had I applied in Cebu; Davao has a hotline to the Mayor's Office where anyone, Filipino or foreigner, can report corrupt officials. Around six months ago, Duterte issued a warning to Immigration, Customs and Tax officials warning them not to copy the actions of their colleagues elsewhere who were suspected of targeting innocent foreigners.

    Duterte is the driving force behind Davao's successful turnaround from being the least safe city in the country to being the safest in the country and the fifth safest in the world. If he can fundamentally change the country in the way he has changed Davao, it's a big win for (most) Filipinos.
  14. Bluebird71
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    Bluebird71 Well-Known Member

    Deleted
    Last edited: Jul 7, 2016
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  15. Markham
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    Markham Guest

    Point of correction: The "Bullet Scam" was not being perpetrated by Customs officials but by security screening personnel working in the departure areas of NAIA Terminal 2 - ie post check-in. Duterte issued a statement that if anyone from Davao was caught-up in this scam, he would personally arrange for and pay their lawyers.
    He was offered the job of Interior Minister with the specifics of tackling criminality by no fewer than four Presidents: Ramos, Estrada, Arroyo and Aquino. He turned them all down.

    As for the Samal kidnapping, what would you have him do? The kidnappers escaped by fast craft to Jolo and, in any case, neither Duterte nor the Davao Protection Force have any jurisdiction on Samal which forms part of Davao Del Norte province, not Davao City.

    Whatever you, I or any other foreigner think about any of the candidates, our opinions count for nothing and indeed you can be arrested by BoI officials for expressing them publicly. The decision as to who will become their next President should be up to Filipinos and they alone, not us foreigners nor the vested interests of the uber-rich and the political dynasties: they are the ones who will have to live with their choice.
    Last edited by a moderator: May 3, 2016
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  16. Bluebird71
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    Bluebird71 Well-Known Member

    Apologies for the mistake and thanks for the correction.
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  17. Markham
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    Markham Guest

    Thank you!

    Oh and by the way
    That depends on who you are and where your trial takes place. You stand a much greater chance of being presumed innocent if you're a Filipino who has not wronged someone of power, money and influence and your trial takes place away from the NCR or Cebu. If you're a foreigner, all bets are off: the Bill of Rights - that is part of the Constitution and contains the pledge of the presumption of innocence - does not apply to non-Filipinos.
  18. Methersgate
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    Methersgate Well-Known Member Lifetime Member

    Point of correction: the Philippines was one of the first signatories to the UN Declaration on Human Rights.
  19. Markham
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    Markham Guest

    True. But ... I wrote (in post #17) above what actually happens rather than what is supposed to happen.

    Let me remind you of one example. Some months before the trial in the Ellah Joy Pique case got underway, the chief prosecutor made a series of statements stating that the absent British defendant was guilty of murder and that he had to come to the court in Cebu and prove his innocence. When she was questioned about her statement, she replied that foreigners do not enjoy the same protections under the Constitution as Filipinos and that the presumption of innocence was a privilege only given to Filipino defendants. The defense team chose not to raise this as an issue as that defendant was not about to be tried.
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  20. Methersgate
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    Methersgate Well-Known Member Lifetime Member

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